Hur fungerar optioner? Avanza

Der Niedergang des Dollars hat gerade erst begonnen: Mit welchen Konsequenzen für und??

https://fbkfinanzwirtschaft.wordpress.com/2020/09/28/the-dollars-decline-has-only-just-begun/

NEW HAVEN - Der US-Dollar befindet sich nun im Anfangsstadium eines scheinbar steilen Abstiegs. Der reale effektive Wechselkurs des Dollars (REER) fiel in den vier Monaten bis August um 4,3%. Gemessen an anderen Indizes war der Rückgang sogar noch steiler, aber der REER ist für Handel, Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, Inflation und Geldpolitik am wichtigsten.

Sicherlich macht der jüngste Rückzug den Anstieg von fast 7% von Februar bis April nur teilweise wieder rückgängig. In diesem Zeitraum profitierte der Dollar von der Flucht in die Sicherheit, die durch den "plötzlichen Stopp" der Weltwirtschaft und der Weltfinanzmärkte infolge der COVID-19-Sperre ausgelöst wurde. Selbst mit der jüngsten bescheidenen Korrektur bleibt der Greenback die am stärksten überbewertete Hauptwährung der Welt, wobei der REER immer noch 34% über seinem Tiefststand vom Juli 2011 liegt.

Ich gehe weiterhin davon aus, dass dieser breite Dollar-Index bis Ende 2021 um bis zu 35% einbrechen wird. Dies spiegelt drei Überlegungen wider: die rapide Verschlechterung der makroökonomischen Ungleichgewichte in den USA, den Aufstieg des Euro und des Renminbi als gangbare Alternativen und das Ende jener besonderen Aura des amerikanischen Exzeptionalismus, die dem Dollar während des größten Teils der Zeit nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg eine teflonartige Widerstandsfähigkeit verliehen hat.


Der erste Faktor - Amerikas wachsende Ungleichgewichte - spielt sich nun in Echtzeit mit voller Wucht ab. Das Zusammentreffen einer beispiellosen Erosion der inländischen Ersparnis und des Leistungsbilanzdefizits - an der Hüfte verbunden durch arithmetische Buchhaltungsidentitäten - ist nichts weniger als erschütternd.

Die nationale Nettosparquote, die die gemeinsame abschreibungsbereinigte Ersparnis der Unternehmen, Haushalte und des Staatssektors misst, ist im zweiten Quartal 2020 mit -1% in den negativen Bereich gefallen. Dies war seit der globalen Finanzkrise 2008-09 nicht mehr geschehen, als die nationale Nettosparquote neun Quartale in Folge in den negativen Bereich fiel und vom zweiten Quartal 2008 bis zum zweiten Quartal 2010 durchschnittlich -1,7% betrug.

Der wichtigste Aspekt dieser Entwicklung war jedoch die Geschwindigkeit des Zusammenbruchs. Mit -1% im zweiten Quartal fiel die Nettosparquote um ganze 3,9 Prozentpunkte gegenüber den 2,9% vor dem COVID im ersten Quartal. Dies ist bei weitem der stärkste Einbruch der inländischen Ersparnis um ein Viertel, der seit 1947 zu verzeichnen ist.

Was diesen beispiellosen Einbruch der inländischen Nettoersparnis ausgelöst hat, ist kein Geheimnis. COVID-19 löste einen vorübergehenden Anstieg der privaten Ersparnisse aus, der durch eine Rekordexpansion des Bundeshaushaltsdefizits mehr als aufgewogen wurde. Der "Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act" (Hilfs-, Rettungs- und Wirtschaftssicherheitsgesetz) sah für die meisten Amerikaner Hilfsschecks in Höhe von 1.200 US-Dollar vor, und die Leistungen der Arbeitslosenversicherung wurden stark ausgeweitet, was die Sparquote der Privathaushalte im April auf unerhörte 33,7% ansteigen ließ. Ohne diese einmaligen Injektionen ging die persönliche Sparquote im Juli rasch auf immer noch hohe 17,8% zurück und dürfte mit dem kürzlichen Auslaufen der erweiterten Arbeitslosenunterstützung noch stärker sinken.

Dem stand eine jährliche Ausweitung des Bundesdefizits um 4,5 Billionen Dollar im zweiten Quartal 2020 (auf Nettosparbasis) auf 5,7 Billionen Dollar gegenüber, was den Anstieg der persönlichen Nettoersparnis von 3,1 Billionen Dollar im gleichen Zeitraum zunichte machte. Da die persönliche Ersparnis in den kommenden Monaten wahrscheinlich stark zurückgehen wird und das Haushaltsdefizit des Bundes im laufenden Fiskaljahr in Richtung 16% des BIP explodieren wird, ist der Einbruch der inländischen Nettoersparnis im zweiten Quartal 2020 nach Angaben des Congressional Budget Office nur eine Andeutung dessen, was vor uns liegt.

Dies wird einen Zusammenbruch des US-Leistungsbilanzdefizits auslösen. Da die USA nicht über genügend Ersparnisse verfügen und investieren und wachsen wollen, müssen sie überschüssige Ersparnisse aus dem Ausland importieren und massive Zahlungsbilanzdefizite aufweisen, um ausländisches Kapital anzuziehen. Auch hier handelt es sich nicht um eine esoterische Wirtschaftstheorie - nur um eine einfache Zahlungsbilanzidentität.

Die Gültigkeit dieser Verknüpfung wurde in der Tat durch die kürzlich veröffentlichte Statistik der internationalen Transaktionen der USA für das zweite Quartal 2020 bestätigt. Als Folge des Einbruchs der inländischen Ersparnisse weitete sich das Leistungsbilanzdefizit auf 3,5% des BIP aus - das schlimmste seit dem Defizit von 4,3% im vierten Quartal 2008 während der globalen Finanzkrise.

Wie der Einbruch der Ersparnis entfaltet sich auch die Dynamik der Leistungsbilanz auf eine ebenso heftige Weise. Bezogen auf das Leistungsbilanzdefizit von 2,1% des BIP in der ersten Periode des Jahres 2020 war die Ausweitung um 1,4 Prozentpunkte im zweiten Quartal die größte vierteljährliche Verschlechterung, die jemals verzeichnet wurde (sie geht auf das Jahr 1960 zurück).

Da die inländische Nettosparquote wahrscheinlich auf Rekordtiefen zwischen -5% und -10% des Nationaleinkommens zusteuert, gehe ich voll und ganz davon aus, dass das Leistungsbilanzdefizit seinen früheren Rekord von 6,3% des BIP, der im vierten Quartal 2005 verzeichnet wurde, brechen wird. Angetrieben durch den explosionsartigen Anstieg des Bundeshaushaltsdefizits in diesem und im nächsten Jahr dürften sich der Zusammenbruch der inländischen Ersparnis und die Implosion der Leistungsbilanz nahezu blitzschnell entfalten.

s sind nicht nur die rasch destabilisierenden Ungleichgewichte bei der Ersparnis und den Leistungsbilanzen, die den Dollar unter Druck setzen. Eine Verschiebung in der politischen Strategie der Federal Reserve ist ein neuer und wichtiger Bestandteil dieser Mischung. Mit dem Übergang zu einem Ansatz, der jetzt auf die durchschnittliche Inflation abzielt, sendet die Fed eine wichtige Botschaft aus: Die Nullzinsen werden wahrscheinlich länger als bisher angenommen bestehen bleiben, ungeachtet etwaiger vorübergehender Überschreitungen des Preisstabilitätsziels von 2%.

Diese neue Ausrichtung auf monetäre Akkommodation schließt eine wichtige Option - Zinsanpassungen nach oben - effektiv aus, die in den meisten Volkswirtschaften lange Zeit den Währungsverfall abgemildert hat. Standardmäßig übt dies noch mehr Druck auf den fallenden Dollar aus, der als Fluchtventil für die sich rasch verschlechternden makroökonomischen Ungleichgewichte Amerikas dient.

Kurz gesagt, der Schraubstock wird bei einem immer noch überbewerteten Dollar enger. Die inländische Ersparnis sinkt jetzt so stark wie nie zuvor, und die Leistungsbilanz folgt diesem Trend. Erwarten Sie nicht, dass die Fed, die sich mehr auf die Unterstützung der Aktien- und Anleihemärkte als auf die Inflationsbekämpfung konzentriert, den Tag retten wird. Der Niedergang des Dollars hat gerade erst begonnen.

Übersetzt mit www.DeepL.com/Translator (kostenlose Version)
submitted by echtIrre to Debitismus_Forum [link] [comments]

Some questions about TNO

So I have just recently discovered TNO and I am instantly hooked and hyped for this mod, however after, well, too many hours of digging through quite a bit of info (which still feels like I just scratched the surface), I still have some questions:
  1. How is the cold war and nukes handeled? In the demo footage there seems to be a DEFCON counter. Does it act dynamically to the world events? If so, does it mean that certain choices as certain nations will lead to a game over (or a victory depending on who you play) through a nuclear war?
  2. Simple one, if the Iberian player is sloppy, can Atlantropa break?
  3. What is the situation with the mods release? As I understand it should come out this year, yet I also saw some talk about how there will be 1973 and 1983 start dates. Will these be released after the 1962 one over the next few years?
  4. What is the terror bombing like in Russia / Africa? Is it an actively organized effort by the Germans? Is it causing some international tensions or does simply no one can do anything to help? Since in Russia it doesn't actually destroy the targeted states, I assume it is more like regular air raids, instead of a more insane stuff like a perpetual armageddon.
  5. Multiple paths. How much choice do nations have when it comes to what they can do? It seems Germany is steered down the path of being fascist to at least some degree, with only other option being the DSR, which is described more as being more of a failure outcome for the player anyway. USA has a pretty interesting Cold War tree, but the only other option seems to be just taking an isolationist stance and not really doing anything as it seems that even the most radical left or right paths are just "lets leave OFN with our specific spin as to why". Am I just mistaken here? When it comes to minors then, I assume they will mostly have just one path with some sort of small divergence in most cases, right? At least that's the feeling I am getting from looking at the Russian warlords. When it comes to the Triumvirate states, it also seems that you can't really take them anywhere too far off from their starting position.
  6. (Edit; had copy pasted question nr.1 over this one) What options are available for the UPO. They are made up from multiple groups with different goals, hut the only one talked about is the Nakam path. Is it the only one? Or does the UPO fracture and lead to the "12 sided civil war", with 4 different nationalists, communists, anarchists and Kovner gang all forming their own separate groups? Or would UPO just stay united, with Kovner being able to choose one of the paths for the organization as a whole? Also kind of the same question but about Free England, as their situation seems similar.
  7. What is the plan with reformed Russia? Is every warlord that can reunite it going to have their own distinct path after reunification? Or will it be like 4 different generalized paths with distinct smaller focuses for different leaders (like let's say there would be a singular USSR tree, but with sections dedicated to specific leaders or shared in between ideologically similar ones), with only really spicy ones like Omsk or Lysenko getting a fully unique trees?
  8. How much uniqueness do South America and Africa have? These always seem to be on the sidelines in most mods, so maybe a possibility of a native superstate arising in one of these?
submitted by Ganas_33 to TNOmod [link] [comments]

Restricted Stock Units - Verkaufen, behalten, re-investieren?

Hallo liebe Forenmitglieder,
ich habe im Rahmen eines Bonusprogramms von meinem Arbeitgeber in den USA eine RSU-Zuteilung erhalten - insgesamt 108 RSUs mit einem vesting von 4 Jahren, also 27 RSUs pro Jahr.
Am 15.3 wird jetzt die erste Zuteilung fällig, d.h. ich habe das erste mal wirklich "etwas in der Hand".Mir ist bewusst, dass am 15.3. dann auch gleich 42% Steuern abgezogen werden in Form von Aktien - d.h. mir bleiben 15 Aktien in meinem Depot. (Aktueller Kurs ist ~40$ pro Aktie, wir reden also von keiner weltbewegenden Summe).
Schaut man sich jetzt mal den Aktienkurs meiner Firma seit Börsengang 2017 bis heute an nehme ich an, dass Kursgewinne in naher Zukunft aktuell eher unwahrscheinlich sind (da die Aktien jetzt zu einem Zeitpunkt vesten wo der Kurs nahe dem vorherigen Maximum liegt):
https://preview.redd.it/fubd939tvqf41.jpg?width=603&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9e5fd6ac2e247b965845e32a2e41146f5703d756
Die Frage ist jetzt, was machen.Einfach jedes Jahr die 15 Aktien zum grade aktuellen Kurs verkaufen? Bei 15 Aktien und ~40$ wären das gerade mal 600$, abzüglich dem ganzen hick hack mit Gebühren usw also vmtl. unter 500€.
Einfach liegen lassen? Wie gesagt, der Kurs scheint sich nicht sonderlich dramatisch zu entwickeln (Mein Arbeitgeber auf jeden fall mal kein Tesla..)
Jetzt gäbe es natürlich die Option, die Aktien zu verkaufen, das Geld aber nicht abzuziehen, sondern als Startkapital für breiter gestreute Investitionen zu verwenden. (Bei "geschenktem" Extrageld ist hier auch meine Angst vor Verlusten eher überschaubar - ich bin da typisch Deutsch und habe den Aktienmarkt bisher gemieden wie der Teufel das Weihwasser)
Die Frage wäre jetzt, was und wie. Das Depot liegt in den USA bei eTrade, und wenn ich das System richtig verstehe kann ich damit ganz normal handel treiben, Aktien kaufen/verkaufen etc.
Ich lese hier immer wieder etwas von ETF, von Streuung seines Potenzials, etc... wobei da meist Anlagesummen genannt werden, die um Größenordnungen über dem hier zu erwarteten Kapital liegen - hat hier jemand gute Tipps, was man machen könnte?
submitted by kuldan5853 to Finanzen [link] [comments]

Pre-vaporwave: a developmental timeline (LONG!)

OK, yeah...this is long. If you have the debilitating TL;DR Syndrome that results in a complete loss of mental composure due to exposure to more than two paragraphs of text, stop reading now and discuss your symptoms with your health care provider. There are medications that may help.
Aside of that, this grew out of a question some months back on here where someone asked me what the “lineage” for vaporwave actually is. Sooooo...I got started on this, and discovered that, in truth, there is a LOT of lineage there. In this timeline, I opted to look at developments that directly affect or inform the development of vaporwave that have occurred right up to the inception of the style. And yes, it does go all the way back to the concept of the melodic trope, as that is a clear ancestor of the practices of de/restructuring through existing material that is a major aspect of vaporwave. Some extramusical events are also noted here that are significant to vaporwave's overall concepts and which link together quite smoothly with the musical parts of the timeline at various points. And some of these linkages will doubtless be both revelatory and and informative.
Why is this significant? Basically, music does not occur in a vacuum (both literally and figuratively). And events in present-day music often have their causes at other points in music's history or from sources outside of music altogether. In vaporwave's case, this becomes particularly interesting and complex, as things which are relevant here often have less relevance to the pop music corpus which vaporwave often draws upon for its source material and aethetic. Part of this is likely due to vaporwave being a musical style which actually has more to do with experimental music, but also to the fact that vaporwave's development is so incredibly decentralized. As a result, it can be noted that the timeline starts to become very densely-packed as entertainment media assumes an ubiquitous role in worldwide society. This linkage makes perfect sense, however, when one considers what happens within vaporwave; the point that vaporwave exists as both a development from and reaction to entertainment media becomes quite clear as this timeline goes on.
So...here it is. Now, this doesn't cover every bit of minutae, but is intended more as a set of major “signposts”, events and developments which clearly move the direction of musical development toward the inception of vaporwave itself. As a result, there are certainly things that perhaps should be in here which are not...but then, that's what comment sections are for. Discuss, add to the discourse, and as that happens, everyone benefits from knowing/understanding more about vaporwave...and vaporwave itself benefits, as “lineage” tends to be viewed as critically-important in the study of music. And there is PLENTY to study...both in vaporwave and, as this shows, where vaporwave came from over a long span of time.
Approximately first half of 10th c.: In the monastery at St. Gallen (now in Switzerland) a manuscript is created that documents the “tropes”, or musical addenda, to the Liturgical Plainchant. A scanned facsimile can be found at https://www.e-codices.unifr.ch/en/list/one/csg/0484 These tropes are extra compositions and/or additions to be added to the longstanding chant forms that made up the Liturgy, creating a library of musical fragments which can be used amongst the Liturgy to generate variation on that core body of chant.
Mid-15th c.: A composer, presumably Antoine Busnois, writes a secular song called "L'homme armé". This “hit”, popular throughout Western Europe at the time, then finds its way into several dozen settings of the Mass as a “cantus firmus”, a melody that is recycled with ample variation into the polyphony of the Mass setting. Settings of this continue into the 16th c., when the practices of creating “parody masses” (masses based around a secular song) and troping in general are banned during the Counter-reformation at the Council of Trent. However, works based on the "L'homme armé" melody continue up into the present day; more about this at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%27homme_arm%C3%A9
Around 1600, Florence: Several composers, poets, and patrons of the arts devise a new artform by combining aspects of theatre, literature, music, and stagecraft to create opera. This new form, over a period of 400 or so years, eventually develops into an encompassing one that eventually goes beyond the stage, becoming the source for musical theatre in the late 19th century and, by extension, the staged pop music video, which began to appear in the mid-1950s; perhaps the best-known example from this time being Elvis Presley's “Jailhouse Rock”, a production number which was part of the 1957 Elvis movie of the same name and which today is perhaps more significant than the movie itself.
1611, Nagoya, Japan: Sukemichi Ito founds a kimono and lacquerware manufactory that, over time, becomes the oldest still-operating department store in the world, Matsuzakaya. Originally called Ito Gofuku, the firm's focus gradually shifted to retail sales in its first century and it became a Western-style department store in 1910.
17 July 1717, London, England: George Frideric Handel's “Water Music” is premiered during a cruise on the Thames hosted by King George I. As opposed to a proper concert setting, the orchestra for this work was placed on a barge towed behind the royal craft, as the work was intended as accompaniment for the river cruise and not the focus of the event itself. This is not only a significant date for ambient music, as it also is the premiere of a purely-background work of music, intended as such by the composer himself. Technically, this is where concepts such as Muzak begin, as well as the underlying precepts behind ambient music.
1787, Vienna, Austria: Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart publishes his “Musikalisches Würfelspiel”, or “Musical Dice Game”, in which precomposed musical fragments are assembled into entire pieces of music through the use of chance procedures operated by dice throws. While there are previous examples of this, Mozart's version appears to have been the first to offer up a fully-formed “score” for the process, allowing “players” to restructure 272 bars of his work into completely new musical pieces. An online version of the work, a direct precursor to sampling processes, can be found and played at http://www.playonlinedicegames.com/mozart
February 1848, London, England: “The Communist Manifesto” by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels is first published. An analytical critique of class struggle and capitalism, the pamphlet became one of the most influential...and controversial...political documents in history, framing all of existing history to that point as a “history of class struggles” and examining how capitalist society continues to perpetuate this conflict.
Mid-19th c., Bayreuth, Germany: Richard Wagner conceives of the “gesamtkunstwerk” as a logical outgrowth of opera. While the term predates Wagner, he was the first to put the concept into practice, taking opera beyond its current constraints by demanding that the orchestra be hidden, by employing offstage musical forces, and by taking staging to a far more elaborate level which, eventually, required a complete reworking of the concept of the European opera house itself. Wagner's idea was to encourage artists to rely on hidden dream states and emotional responses to create works which both went beyond the separate aspects of opera and which also embodied the shadowy incompleteness of dreams, creating a unified spectacle both grounded in and divorced from mundane reality. This all-encompassing concept eventually finds its way into art in general by the end of the 19th century, informing visual artists, composers and some working in the new field of cinema.
1877, Menlo Park, New Jersey, USA: Thomas Alva Edison invents the phonograph. This device was capable of recording sound, which had already been demonstrated by numerous inventors prior to Edison's invention. These other recorders, however, were not capable of reproducing the recorded sound, making Edison's phonograph the first device to have the capability of storing audio for playback.
1889, Paris, France: Claude Debussy hears Javanese gamelan music for the first time at the Paris Exposition Universelle. This would mark the first time in which a composer of Western music would be directly influenced by non-Western musical forms. While prior examples of “musical exoticism” do exist, Debussy was less interested in gamelan music as a “gimmick” and much moreso as a source for expanding the vocabulary of Western composition. Not only would this encounter filter down through Western music to the present-day, it had a reverse influence on the Indonesian musicians, especially at Debussy's second encounter with this music at the 1900 Exposition; innovations in Javanese and especially Balinese music after 1900 are directly traceable to this encounter. More about this can be found at: https://symposium.music.org/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=22:claude-debussys-gamelan&Itemid=124
1897, USA: Thaddeus Cahill patents his designs for the “Telharmonium”, now considered the first “synthesizer”, although the architecture of the instrument is more akin to that of the Hammond organ. Since the instrument predated the development of electronic amplification, it was built as a huge series of dynamos, required to generate the sizable voltages needed to serve the subscription service for Cahill's background music service which served New York City at the beginning of the 20th century. This led to the instrument's downfall, however, as the Telharmonium transmissions caused extensive interference on telephone circuits; Cahill's service was ended around 1912, which eventually led to the scrapping of the 200-ton instrument housed in Telharmonic Hall, located at 39th and Broadway in Manhattan. Laurens Hammond, a clockmaker, would later miniaturize concepts of the Telharmonium to create the Hammond organ about 15 years later, and this instrument would be far more successful due to its use of tube amplification and (relative) portability.
1900, Cobb Island, Maryland, USA: Reginald Fessenden begins his experiments with the transmission of audio via radio. This would culminate in his Xmas Eve experimental broadcast in 1906 from Brant Rock, Massachusetts of music and entertainment, the first such broadcast in history. This, basically, is the birth of the broadcast industry.
1913, Italy: Luigi Russolo publishes the manifesto “L'Arte dei Rumori”, or “The Art of Noises”, postulating a futuristic music based on replications of everyday noises. His response to the Industrial Revolution, the manifesto proposed that man, now used to complex sounds, would eventually turn toward a music constructed purely of noise. A year later, the premiere concert of this new music using special noise instruments which Russolo called “Intonarumori” would devolve into a riot. A single recording of two of these works, performed with Russolo's original instruments, was made in 1921, and these pieces can be heard at https://www.thereminvox.com/filemanagelist/12/ All of Russolo's original intonarumori were either lost or destroyed during World War II, but new versions of some have been recently built.
1915/16, New York City and Zurich, Switzerland: Several artists, including Marcel Duchamp, Tristan Tzara, Hugo Ball, Francis Picabia and numerous others, create Dada. Dada was an artistic movement that came about as a reaction to World War I, and artists and works produced by them rejected notions of logic, reason, then-current aesthetics, and bourgeois capitalism and consumerism. Dada subsequently sparked works of visual, musical, written and performance art that spurred the development of other art movements that rejected the then-current principles in the arts, such as surrealism and social realism while adopting a positive stance toward modernity and urban life. Dadaist works also made considerable use of methods that fit into the general heading of “sampling”, both visually and in some written works. However, its most visible musical proponent was Erik Satie, whose works played no small part in the development of ambient music; Satie's 1917 works of "Musique d'ameublement" or “furniture music” are considered the first such instances where music was composed for the deliberate purpose of being ignored as a sonic background.
1922, Staten Island, New York, USA: Gen. George Squier's new service, Wired Radio, Inc., debuts. Using the existing telephone network, the company offers home music delivery as a subscription service, but as radio becomes more commonplace as an free entertainment medium, Squier changed both the focus of the company and its name. So, in 1934, Squier's newly-rebranded Muzak company begins to offer his subscription service primarily to commercial clients.
14 December 1924: Ottorino Respighi's “The Pines of Rome” is premiered in that city. The third movement of that work requires the playback of a gramophone recording of a nightingale, with the composer specifying a specific model of playback (using a Brunswick Panatrope) and recording in the work's score. This is the very first instance of what is known as an audio sample being used in a musical work; in fact, in modern performances of this work, digital samplers are usually employed for this purpose.
1935, Berlin, Germany: AEG demonstrates the Model K1 Magnetophon, the first commercial tape recorder, at the Berlin Radio Show. While there had been prior “tape” machines, mot notably the very large and very dangerous Marconi-Stille steel razor-tape machines used by the BBC around this time, AEG was able to create a much smaller and more practical device by designing the K1 to use plastic-based tape stock. In subsequent years, German engineers continued to refine the machine to the point that it was used as a propaganda device, allowing radio broadcasts that seemed live to continue even at the height of combat during World War II. As such, the Magnetophon was viewed as an “enemy asset”, allowing for military personnel to confiscate ones used in broadcasting around the war's end. These confiscated Magnetophons became the basis for recording developments in the USA, UK, and France after WWII. Most importantly, the development of recording on plastic tape allowed engineers to physically edit the recordings, ostensibly for removing imperfections from performances, unlike either steel tape or gramophone lathe technology of that period.
1948, Paris, France: Broadcast engineer Pierre Schaeffer composes his “Cinq études de bruits” (Five Noise Studies) in which various recorded bits of audio (initially on disc, later on tape) are subjected to studio transformation processes, yielding the earliest pieces of what would be called “Musique concrète”, or music using pre-existing sounds. A notable example of this, the “Etude aux chemins de fer”, can be heard at https://archive.org/details/PierreSchaffertudeAuxCheminsDeFer. Schaeffer, in collaboration with the Club d'Essai (which eventually become the “Groupe de Recherches Musicales”, or GRM) and the French broadcast authority ORTF, would go on to create numerous devices and techniques for this new compositional medium. Many of these techniques still form the core of sampling technology today.
1949, Hollywood, California, USA. Bing Crosby, now the head of Ampex, gifts guitarist Les Paul with a Model 200A tape recorder, a device based on confiscated AEG Magnetophon technology. Paul's experiments with the machine eventually yield the single “Lover (When You're Near Me)”, released by Capitol Records in 1950. This track was created by Les Paul by using multitracking and overdubbing techniques developed by him, and stands as one of the very first significant uses of these tape techniques in music production. In later years, Les Paul would develop effects techniques such as tape delay and flanging, and worked with engineer Ross Snyder to develop Ampex's first multitrack tape machine. Along with this, Paul worked with the engineer Rein Narma to create the first multitrack mixing desk, as well as important sonic devices such as the first “look-ahead” audio compressors, the still-prized Fairchild 660 and 670.
1953/1954, Cologne, West Germany: Karlheinz Stockhausen, working in the new electronic music studio at Nord-West Deutsche Rundfunk in Cologne, composes the first fully-electronically-generated musical works, “Studie I & II”, which premiere on 19 October 1954. These two pieces, unlike previous “concrete” efforts, utilize sound spectra synthetically derived by electronic means, primarily using test equipment and broadcast tech, which alowed for empirical control over all aspects of sound. Stockhausen's Studies, as well as many of his subsequent electronic studio compositions, massively alter the course of music, setting in motion many later developments in music composition, music and recording technology, and altering general conceptions of how music can and should be created.
1955, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA: During a performance at the Shell Bar at the Hawaiian Village resort, a number of frogs in a pond in the semi-outdoor venue begin to make noises during a performance by Martin Denny and his lounge combo. When the group stopped, the frogs stopped. And when the group started up again, so would the frogs. But then, Denny began to receive audience requests to “play the song with the frogs”, so members of the group began to make simulated frog, bird, and other “jungle” noises amongst the music, in particular an arrangement of the Les Baxter tune “Quiet Village”. This arrangement of Baxter's song went on to sell over one million copies, and the concept of “exotica” was born. A fusion of easy listening, ethnic appropriations, lighter Latin jazz, and jungle ambiances, exotica became a major force in pop music in the USA at the end of the 1950s and the beginning of the '60s, but just as quickly disappeared when the British Invasion began in 1963. However, after the rediscovery of Denny's work in the late 1970s (by the likes of the pioneering Industrial group Throbbing Gristle, no less!), astute listeners began to realize that Martin Denny's work was part of the DNA of ambient music, with the group working to create a displaced tropical sensibility by inserting artificial “tropical” elements into basic lounge jazz.
October 1955, Luleå, Sweden: Shopping, the world's first completely enclosed shopping mall, opens. Built to allow indoor shopping in the severe Arctic weather of northern Sweden, the design by British architect Ralph Erskine was intended to bring the “city life” indoors during the winter. Shopping is still open to this day.
1957, Urbana, Illinois, USA: Lejaren Hiller, in collaboration with Leonard Isaacson, composes the “Illiac Suite”, the first composition to make large-scale use of a computer for composition. This work for string quartet used the ILLIAC I computer at the University of Illinois to generate the data which was then translated into musical notation for the performers. Alongside developments by Max Mathews at Bell Labs around the same time, this opened up music to the possibilities that computers could bring to composers as a tool for musical work.
1959, Paris, France: Authors William S. Burroughs and Brion Gysin collaborate on the development of “cut-up technique”, an array of methods for deconstructing and reconstructing texts, although over time and further collaboration with other writers and artists the technique would grow to encompass visual art, tape recordings, computer-generated texts, and so on. Burroughs felt that the method allowed a “Third Mind” into a work, beyond that of the artist and his or her source material, and the book “The Third Mind” by himself and Gysin functions both as an anthology of their experiments as well as a manifesto for the technique itself.
1961, Cherry Hill, New Jersey, USA: Max Mathews works with Bell Labs engineers to have a computer generate both the background music and the vocal sounds for the song “Daisy Bell”. One of the people to hear this demonstration was the author Arthur C. Clarke, visiting a colleague of his at Bell Labs at the time. This encounter formed the basis for the song's use in Clarke and Stanley Kubrick's “2001: A Space Odyssey”, one of the first science-fiction films to look at the future in a realistic light, which would inspire futurist concepts up into the present day. But the demonstration also showed that a computer could be used to synthesize ALL aspects of a musical performance...including vocals. Developments stemming from this early work are now very much a part of present-day digital audio technology.
6 February 1961: Marty Robbins' single “Don't Worry” is released. The track contains six-string bass parts which were recorded by Nashville engineer Glen Snoddy through a defective preamplifier for the “fuzz” sound the problematic circuit caused. Over the next year, Snoddy and broadcast engineer Revis Hobbs of WSM collaborate on reverse-engineering the defective circuit as an guitar effect device. This was eventually issued by Maestro in 1962, and was known as the “FZ-1 Fuzz-Tone”, the first commercially-available fuzzbox. Sales of the unit were slow until Keith Richards used one on his guitar for the Rolling Stones' hit “(I Can't Get No) Satisfaction”. The FZ-1 is also interesting in that it was the first device sold for the purpose of degrading audio quality as an aesthetic choice.
1963, Wuppertal, West Germany: An exhibition by the composer Nam June Paik entitled “Exposition of Music – Electronic Television” opens, in which Paik shows several video sculptures which were made by using magnets and circuit alterations on everyday CRT televisions. A participant in the post-Dada art group Fluxus, Paik went on to explore video synthesis, combinations of electronic sculpture and performance art, videotape field recording, and robotics, in addition to theoretical work in the mid-1970s which helped to define the later development of the Internet. However, Paik's work with video was perhaps the most critical aspect, showing the artistic potential in intervening in and tampering with the various signals that make up video. And in a very real sense, Paik's work also laid important groundwork for the fields of glitch art and circuit bending.
1964, San Francisco, California and upstate New York, USA: At around the same time, two engineers set out to come up with the same solution to different problems. One, in California, starts to build a system of circuits to assist a group of tape music composers, and the other in New York was working on solving an issue with controlling electronic music circuits with voltages. Both of these men would lend their names to the synthesizers that resulted from these developments: Don Buchla and Robert Moog. The systems they devised would alter the landscape of music altogether, and would take the tedious and esoteric methods used ten years previously by Karlheinz Stockhausen and all electronic composers who would follow in his lead and condense them into playable musical instruments. With further developments in electronics yet to come, synthesizers would become smaller, portable, and eventually ubiquitous.
30 November 1967, Cologne, West Germany: Karlheinz Stockhausen's magnum opus for electronic and concrete sound “Hymnen” premiers in its version for 4-channel tape and soloists. Comprised of electronic soundscapes peppered with manipulated and transformed tape samples from national anthems, shortwave and other field recordings, and songs from around the world. The two-hour piece, in four movements, was intended as a “world portrait” in sound of mankind at that juncture in time. At the time, its length was groundbreaking, but its free combination of both pure electronic and concrete sounds was equally significant in breaking the barrier between these two directions in electronic music. And, coming at the time that it did, “Hymnen” elevated Stockhausen to something approximating rockstar status for several years, leading to offers of collaboration with the likes of the Beatles.
1968, Kingston, Jamaica: Osborne Ruddock, aka King Tubby, creates the first true “dub” mix from Slim Smith's “Ain't Too Proud to Beg” at Treasure Isle. Producer Bunny Lee encouraged Tubby to rework the track after an instrumental “version” of The Paragons' “On the Beach” caused a sensation at a Kingston sound system the previous evening. Not only would this become the birth of dub, but it was essentially the birth of remix culture in general, as innovations from the Jamaican dub scene went on to play a formative role in hiphop, house, techno, and more futuristic spins on the dub style that would begin to emerge in the 1990s.
October 1968: Columbia Records releases “Switched-On Bach”, a reworking of ten pieces by the Baroque composer Johann Sebastian Bach, performed and multitracked by Walter (now Wendy) Carlos on an early Moog system. While there had been recordings of electronic works prior to the album's release, Carlos's efforts connected with the listening public partly due to the familiarity of the musical works that the new electronic sounds had been deployed in. The album makes the Moog a household word, goes on to become the first album of electronic music to sell one million copies, and attracts an immense amount of attention to electronic music from all quarters...most notably, from other musicians, who then become eager to work with the new instrument. This development spurs the emergence of new companies that start their own lines of electronic instruments, as well as the portability of the instruments themselves. This last factor is the beginning of the separation of the development of electronic music from academic and broadcasting institutions as the new portable synthesizers draw yet more attention and revenue, beginning the gradual democratization of electronic music in general.
29 October 1969, Los Angeles, California, USA: UCLA Prof. Leonard Kleinrock and his assistant Charley Kline become the first people to successfully send a message from one computer to another via an experimental US Department of Defense network, ARPANET. This event marks the beginning of what would come to be known as the Internet.
(1970 forward is below, as the doc appears to be a bit long for Reddit)
submitted by Lugia909 to Vaporwave [link] [comments]

/u/TheTimeNotTheMiles on Do you value bodily autonomy less than life? And where exactly do you draw the line? (Abortion)

I would disagree that child raping and murder is as bad for society as an abortion in the first week.
I'd say murdering a child is worse than just about anything else. Abortion is the murder of a child. That trumps.bodily autonomy
As for the weird state of law. The german constitution starts with "Human dignity is inviolable" which would murder illegal or child raping illegal without it being explicitly stated in the law. But I can see how one could think that the same applies to every abortion.
What about a nation without a constitution? If someone is murdered in the Congo for example.
You're trying to avoid grappling with the tough reality that law derives from morality, not the other way around.
I disagree with this. At least for laws my opinion is that fringe cases are extremely important.
Theres a precept that interesting cases make bad law.
The injustice of a single person being convicted despite being innocent weighs far heavier for me than 10 guilty people walking free. But I guess you could see that differently.
What about 100 guilty people? What about 1000 guilty people?
The simple fact is is that without a doubt there is an innocent person in jail somewhere in Germany. should we release all of the other criminals in Germany to ensure that one innocent person isn't in jail?
Despite that it isn't really a fringe case. People destroying other peoples health intentionally or unintentionally isn't uncommon. Deaths due to subsequent organ failure won't be very rare. Drug dealers, car drivers, rapists, malpracticing doctors etc etc etc.
Are you under the impression that I am opposed to the punishment of drug dealers negligent drivers, rapists or malpracticing doctors? Do you think those people deserve to be executed for impacting the health of somebody else? Because that's what you want done to babies.
.
The draft I haven't considered but this is something USA specific. In Germany you can say that you find war or the idea of being in a war abhorred. In this case you would be forced to help in an old peoples home or something like that. But this is clearly another level of intrusion than being pregnant.
That's still a violation of your bodily autonomy, you are still being forced to work somewhere against your will.
And yes, being pregnant is different. As a matter of fact this is one of the things that the law struggles with. Pregnancy is inherently not equitable. Only women can become pregnant, there is no way for any man no matter how much he desires it or how hard he works to become pregnant.
Therefore there can be no such thing as a universal case that applies to pregnancy. At the best of the draft can only be an analogy. . The simple fact is that women can become pregnant and that this impacts our view of the bodily autonomy of one organ because it is the only case where the life of another human being directly depends upon using the organs of another person.
Also this is still voluntary. If you're pregnant and abortion is unlawful you have no choice. To me this makes a huge difference.
I'd say that preventing you from committing murder of your own child because you're sad is another excellent reason to have a law against abortion. It's not only protect the life of the child, but you protect the soul of the mother from committing murder
I probably expressed myself wrong. In this situation I don't keep my freedom but I still decide who can get my organs. There is probably no state except China which handels this differently even for murderers.
You're just trying to draw an arbitrary Line in the Sand. We've already conceded that there are numerous cases where autonomy can be violated for the greater good. Ergo in extreme cases, extreme violations are justified. On cases like taking a killers organs, where there are other options, the necessity is not as immediate, extreme or specific.
In the very rare cases of pregnancy specifically by rape specific circumstances require legal statements.
Ultimately in this specific set of circumstances I value the life of the baby higher than 9 months of inconvenience to a woman.
from TheTimeNotTheMiles on Do you value bodily autonomy less than life? And where exactly do you draw the line? (Abortion)
submitted by rightwingnews to DebateRightists [link] [comments]

Best BTC exchange?

Hey good people of the amazing Internet
I have been using Kraken so far, and I'm not (that) impressed. So here I am looking for alternatives. So far this is what I think is my priorities, but I assume I know nothing so please educate me as well if needed.
My top priority is that the exchange is reliable/fast when sending them BTC to sell, reliable uptime/functionality when I choose to sell and OFC that I get my money out in the end.
Heard some good thing about BITTREX, but I don't quite like that it's US based (or maybe it's a good thing, IDK). Do you guys have some opinions/alternatives? Maybe the best is to have access to all of them?
Please post your opinion with upsides and downsides.
For example:
KRAKEN.COM (RUS/EU/ENGLAND)
TLDR; what's your exchange of choice, pref with up and downsides.
Thanks mba88
PS: editsedits
submitted by mba88 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

[MODPOST] Draft ending, beginning of game, third mod

The Draft will end 24 hours after this post goes live - at 7:35 PM EST / 4:35 PM PST / 12:32 AM GMT on Tuesday, December 1.
At that point all picks not made will be voided, and free agency will open.
HOW TO PICK UP FREE AGENTS
Make a [NEWS] post, declaring that your team has signed whichever free agents they will sign, like this:
[Team name] has signed the following players from free agency:
  • DF Hingle McCringleberry [USA]
  • ST Bismo Funyuns [Russia]
  • GK Swirvithan L'Gooding-Splatt [Colombia]
  • MF Donkey Teeth [Morocco]
You must still remain within your salary cap, we will negate any posts that go over the limit. Otherwise, it's first-come first-serve.
Beginning of Season 1
Season 1 will begin with a [MATCHDAY] post made on Wednesday with pre-season exhibition matches. Once you have your roster set, [9 players and a goalkeeper, rank them 1-9 with 1 being front of field and 9 being back of the field. Include 5 substitute players.] Making adjustments to the system, we will start the actual season on Thursday. You will be free to make daily posts starting on Wednesday. Remember that you can only post once per day apart from [META] posts.
Note: Your roster will remain the same unless you change it in a post or send us a message.
Searching for a Third Mod
As I'm currently going through finals season and later will be going on vacation for a week with only sporadic internet, we will need a third moderator for the sub to keep up with things. If you're interested, comment and we will come to a decision. State previous mod experience if you have it.
Edit: Because it was requested, here is an example of a roster:
  1. ST J'Dinkleage Morgoone (playing nearest opponent's goal)
  2. ST Fartrell Cluggins
  3. ST Paulo
  4. MF Equine Ducklings
  5. MF D'Glester Hardunkichud
  6. MF Swordless Mimetown
  7. DF Turdine Cupcake
  8. DF DeCatholac Mango
  9. DF Goolius Boozler (playing nearest own goal)
  10. [GK] - Fudge
Subs (putting them in order is optional, subs will be matched to position)
  • ST Davoin Shower-Handel
  • MF Tyroil Smoochie-Wallace
  • MF Ibrahim Moizoos
  • DF D'Jasper Probincrux III
  • GK Leoz Maxwell Jilliumz
You may play a formation other than this, such as having 2 strikers, 5 midfielders, etc.
submitted by Everythingpossible to sportspowers [link] [comments]

[uncensored-r/BitcoinMarkets] Best BTC exchange?

The following post by mba88 is being replicated because some comments within the post(but not the post itself) have been silently removed.
The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link:
np.reddit.com/ BitcoinMarkets/comments/6ryja7
The original post's content was as follows:
Hey good people of the amazing Internet
I have been using Kraken so far, and I'm not (that) impressed. So here I am looking for alternatives. So far this is what I think is my priorities, but I assume I know nothing so please educate me as well if needed.
  • I almost only deal in BTC.
  • I don't do much of leverage trading.
  • I don't day trade much.
  • I like that USA (or anyone for that matter) get all my information (or hope so at least).
  • Good security....
  • Fast and easy to get BTC in and out. I do not store BTC on exchanges.
My top priority is that the exchange is reliable/fast when sending them BTC to sell, reliable uptime/functionality when I choose to sell and OFC that I get my money out in the end.
Heard some good thing about BITTREX, but I don't quite like that it's US based (or maybe it's a good thing, IDK). Do you guys have some opinions/alternatives? Maybe the best is to have access to all of them?
Please post your opinion with upsides and downsides.
For example:
KRAKEN.COM (RUS/EU/ENGLAND)
  • SEPA handeling of cash (not that important). POSITIVE
  • Have (almost) always got my withdrawals in reasonable time. POSITIVE
  • Have received support, although in a kinda cryptic language. POSITIVE
  • You can margin trade, but IDK POSITIVE
  • Sometimes deposits and withdrawals are not functionable. NEGATIVE
  • Serious downtime / extreamly laggy / easy DDoS. NEGATIVE
  • Bad design of trading options. NEGATIVE
  • Horrible to work with when shit hits the fan. NEGATIVE
TLDR; what's your exchange of choice, pref with up and downsides.
Thanks mba88
PS: editsedits
submitted by censorship_notifier to noncensored_bitcoin [link] [comments]

BREAKING OVERNIGHT: Massive fire in west London -- WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: TRUMP slaps down House Republicans’ health care bill -- POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL: Voters trust Comey over Trump -- B’DAY: Brian Fallon

BREAKING OVERNIGHT: Massive fire in west London -- WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: TRUMP slaps down House Republicans’ health care bill -- POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL: Voters trust Comey over Trump -- B’DAY: Brian Fallon
by [email protected] (Daniel Lippman) via POLITICO - TOP Stories
URL: http://ift.tt/2srUDjW
Listen to the Playbook Audio Briefinghttp://bit.ly/2srPRmw ... Subscribe on iTuneshttp://apple.co/2eX6Eay ... Visit the online home of Playbookhttp://politi.co/2f51Jnf
HAPPY BIRTHDAY, MR. PRESIDENT. Donald Trump turns 71 today (h/ts Reince and Spicer).
BREAKING OVERNIGHT ... THE LATEST FROM LONDON FIRE -- “6 dead in London fire; figure expected to rise” – AP/London: “London’s Metropolitan Police say six people have died in the devastating fire that engulfed a west London apartment block. Police say the number is expected to rise. Police commander Stuart Cundy says he can ‘confirm six fatalities at this time but this figure is likely to rise during what will be a complex recovery operation over a number of days.’ Cundy says many others are receiving medical care. Some 50 people are being treated in hospitals after a massive fire set a 24-story apartment block in west London ablaze overnight.” http://apne.ws/2srBxu0
--THE GUARDIAN: “The blaze rapidly engulfed the full height of the 24-storey block, and was still burning strongly more than six hours later, with a thick pall of dark smoke visible across the capital. Residents could be seen waving and screaming from their windows, as firefighters wearing breathing apparatus fought to rescue them from their flats. Shortly before 8am, the London fire commissioner, Dany Cotton [said:] ‘In my 29 years of being a firefighter I have never ever seen anything of this scale.’” http://bit.ly/2rgHyFN
Good Wednesday morning. IMAGINE IF you’re a House Republican, and voted for the leadership’s health-care bill in May after being told that you were doing the newly elected president a solid. You listened to the White House’s pleading -- perhaps you got a phone call from Vice President Mike Pence, Chief of Staff Reince Priebus or even the president himself. The administration was on the Hill nonstop to push their legislation. You explained to your constituents that the late-in-the-game changes made to the bill helped cover more people. You celebrated with him in the Rose Garden after passage.
NOW YOU HEAR THE PRESIDENT has gone behind closed doors and told senators the House bill is “mean” and says it doesn’t do enough to cover people. Wouldn’t that anger you? Well, it’s angering a lot of House Republicans, who believe their president put them at political risk with that comment. A Senate health care bill was always going to be more moderate than the House version. If you're a House Republican, are you going to help the White House next time after the president privately just dumped all over you after you cast a vote for him? A lot of GOP lawmakers are buzzing about it, and many are none too pleased with the president right now. Story: “AP sources: Trump tells senators House health bill ‘mean,’” by Alan Fram. http://apne.ws/2t0vZnB
ONE MORE QUICK THOUGHT -- Republicans on the Hill spent years decrying behind-the-scenes machinations of government. Now they have an attorney general that is refusing to discuss his conversations with the president. And a Senate majority that seeking to pass a major health-care bill without hearings.
FOR THE WEST WING -- “Poll: Voters trust Comey over Trump,” by Steven Shepard: “Voters have greater faith in former FBI Director James Comey to tell the truth than in President Donald Trump, who has disputed the veracity of Comey’s sworn testimony before a Senate committee last week. A new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted in the days following Comey’s appearance before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 45 percent of voters said they trust Comey more to tell the truth, compared to 32 percent for Trump. Twenty-three percent have no opinion.” http://politi.co/2rvcoJY
NYT A1, GLENN THRUSH, MAGGIE HABERMAN AND JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS -- “Trump Stews, Staff Steps In, and Mueller Is Safe for Now”: “[T]he president ... began entertaining the idea of firing Mr. Mueller even as his staff tried to discourage him from something they believed would turn a bad situation into a catastrophe, according to several people with direct knowledge of Mr. Trump’s interactions. … For now, the staff has prevailed. ‘While the president has every right to’ fire Mr. Mueller, ‘he has no intention to do so,’ the White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters late Tuesday.
“But people close to Mr. Trump say he is so volatile they cannot be sure that he will not change his mind about Mr. Mueller if he finds out anything to lead him to believe the investigation has been compromised. And his ability to endure a free-ranging investigation, directed by Mr. Mueller, that could raise questions about the legitimacy of his Electoral College victory, the topic that most provokes his rage, will be a critical test for a president who has continued on Twitter and elsewhere to flout the advice of his staff, friends and legal team.”
“Among the aides most alarmed by the idea of firing Mr. Mueller … was Reince Priebus … Donald F. McGahn II, the White House counsel, has also advised against firing Mr. Mueller. Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and adviser, supported firing Mr. Comey, but he has been less pugnacious lately, administration officials said. Mr. Trump’s wife, Melania, has adopted a more temperate tone, telling her husband that she believed the appointment of Mr. Mueller would speed resolution of the Russia scandal and expressing her view that he would be exonerated, according to two people with direct knowledge of her advice.” http://nyti.ms/2rpXNEu
-- @nickconfessore: “The first senior Trump official to leave and write a dishy tell-all about life in the White House is going to make a lot of money.”
DARREN SAMUELSOHN, “6 explosive moments that could still come in Russia probe: The president and his attorneys are showing an increasing willingness to play hardball”: “The Trump-Russia investigation is moving at a breakneck pace compared with past White House scandals. ... [H]ere are six potent powder kegs awaiting Trump, Mueller and Congress: Executive privilege ... Lawyer versus lawyer: More than a dozen lawyers are already working on behalf of Trump and his associates in the Russia investigation ... Trump’s tax returns ... A grand jury: The federal courthouse in Washington could become the center of the political universe. ... [T]he Constitution Avenue location is a likely spot where he might convene a grand jury for witness testimony in his investigation and for potential criminal indictments. ... Presidential interference ... Indictments ... As Mueller brings the probe to a close, he could face perhaps the most explosive of all decisions: whether to prosecute the president himself.” http://politi.co/2t0Sdpn
GARY COHN MANAGING FED CHIEF SEARCH -- WSJ’S NICK TIMIRAOS and KATE DAVIDSON -- “Officials won’t publicly outline any timetable for their decision or shortlist of candidates. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s term runs through January, and President Donald Trump didn’t rule out her reappointment in an April interview. Ms. Yellen’s reappointment isn’t an outcome many observers expect because of Mr. Trump’s fierce criticism of her during the final weeks of last year’s presidential campaign. But his willingness to consider her speaks to the amicable relationship they have forged since Mr. Trump took office, observers say.
“Since taking office, the president and his advisers haven’t publicly questioned the Fed’s actions -- including its decision to raise short-term interest rates in March. The Fed has also signaled it is likely to raise rates again at its two-day meeting that concludes Wednesday. An alternative to Ms. Yellen could be Mr. Cohn, who became Mr. Trump’s top economic adviser after a 26-year career at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Mr. Cohn has emerged as a key intermediary in the administration’s relationship with the central bank.” http://on.wsj.com/2tl4Z1p
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The Trump administration is holding two “listening sessions” today at the White House. At 10 a.m., HHS SECRETARY TOM PRICE and CMS ADMINISTRATOR SEEMA VERMA are meeting with 13 doctors for an Obamacare session. List of the doctorshttp://politi.co/2rZIcu0NEC DIRECTOR GARY COHN is then hosting one on tax reform at 2:30 p.m. The participants: Mitch Bainwol of the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers; Jake Jones of the Alliance and the Daimler Group; Curtis Magleby of the American Automotive Policy Council and Ford; Matt Blunt of AAPC, Victoria Barnes of AAPC and GM; Howard Hakes, Cody Lusk and Rachel Robinson of the American International Automobile Dealers Association, Robert Redding and Robert Wills of the Automotive Service Association, John Bozella and Paul Ryan of Global Automakers, Doug Murtha of Global Automakers and Toyota Motor Sales, USA, Steve Handschuh and Lacy Wilson of the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association; David Regan, Mark Scarpelli, and Pete Welch of the National Auto Dealers Association; and Damon Lester of the National Association of Minority Dealers.
THE BIG PICTURE -- NANCY COOK and ANDREW RESTUCCIA: “Trump tries to master the art of the tiny”: “Bill Clinton salvaged his presidency by focusing on small-ball policy wins. Now Team Trump is trying to master the art of thinking tiny. Faced with a rising drumbeat of scandal stemming from ongoing Russia probes, President Donald Trump is continuing to pursue a big, complicated legislative agenda -- repealing Obamacare, reforming the tax system and passing an infrastructure package.
“Any of those would be hard to achieve in perfect circumstances, but with the GOP ideologically fragmented and the White House distracted by legal trouble, it’s increasingly difficult to imagine Trump landing a big win. Veterans of past White Houses say if the president wants to keep Republican voters on his side, it’s time to turn his attention to putting forward discrete, achievable policy proposals that he can actually get done. ...
“The White House seems to be getting the message. For months, executive branch actions to unwind or rewrite regulations got little notice. But in recent weeks, wonkier policies are getting more fanfare, with briefings for reporters and appearances by Cabinet officials in the press room. On Wednesday, Trump is expected to announce the reorganization of government job training programs at the Labor Department as part of the White House’s ‘workforce development week’ -- the latest in the administration’s recent efforts to highlight tangible, limited goals like privatizing air traffic control or slashing regulations. An administration official said the White House is planning more policy-themed weeks in the coming months, including one on energy tentatively scheduled for late June. The official said the weeks are aimed at unifying the White House’s message.” http://politi.co/2s9zQP9
THE HEARING -- “5 takeaways from Sessions’ Russia testimony,” by Seung Min Kim and Josh Gerstein: “Sessions’ go-to line: ‘I don’t recall’ … The ‘I don’t recall’ line was a reliable response from the attorney general during the nearly three-hour grilling, particularly about one of the biggest questions raised before his testimony - whether he had further undisclosed meetings with Russian officials. … Senate Republicans run interference. While Democrats were harsh toward Sessions, nearly all Republicans treated him gingerly. … Sessions rattled under pressure. The still-new attorney general has had little practice at the witness table, and it showed as he became rattled under questioning from Democrats who have accused him of not being forthcoming about his interactions with Russian officials. …
“Sessions and his deputy show some daylight. Sessions and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein were testifying on Capitol Hill simultaneously Tuesday, but they weren't always in sync. One such moment came when Sessions testified that Comey likely had an obligation to notify Congress when new evidence emerged in the probe into Hillary Clinton's State Department emails last October. … Unasked questions. … The most glaring: Did Sessions ever offer to resign due to Trump’s dissatisfaction with his job performance, as several news outlets have reported? The attorney general might have punted, but his reaction might have betrayed the answer.” http://politi.co/2rZVt60
SURROUND-SOUND -- “Nearly 200 Democratic lawmakers sue Trump citing business conflicts,” by USA Today’s Steve Reilly: “Nearly 200 Democratic members of Congress filed a lawsuit against President Trump on Wednesday morning alleging that his continued ties to his business empire violate the U.S. Constitution. The unprecedented legal action accuses Trump of violating the Emoluments Clause of the U.S. Constitution, which prohibits federal officials from accepting gifts or titles from foreign governments without congressional approval. The lawsuit will have the greatest number of congressional plaintiffs of any lawsuit against the president in the nation’s history, according to Michigan Rep. John Conyers, the House Judiciary Committee’s top-ranking Democrat. ‘We do this not out of any sense of pleasure or partisanship, but because President Trump has left us with no other option,’ he said.” https://usat.ly/2szveo0
-- Democratic lawmakers will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. in the LBJ Room.
-- THE ORIGINAL SCOOP. HEATHER CAYGLE, on June 7: "Democrats to sue Trump over conflicts of interest"http://politi.co/2rvm2fS
REMINDER: WE ARE STILL AT WAR -- “Trump gives Pentagon authority to set troop levels in Afghanistan,” by WaPo’s Thomas Gibbons-Neff: “President Trump has given the Pentagon new authority to decide the troop levels in Afghanistan, a U.S. official said Tuesday. The move could lead to a deployment of thousands more troops as commanders decide the way forward in the 15-year-old war. The U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk candidly, said the move is similar to the April decision that gave the Pentagon more authority to set troop levels in Iraq and Syria. The change, the Pentagon said, was so units could deploy at their proper strength to better maintain unit cohesion.” http://wapo.st/2smOKDF
VIRGINIA GUV RACE: NORTHAM VS. GILLESPIE -- GREGORY SCHNEIDER in WAPO: “Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam won the Democratic nomination for governor of Virginia Tuesday by an unexpectedly wide margin, and Republican Ed Gillespie held off a surprising challenge from Donald Trump acolyte Corey A. Stewart for that party’s nomination. …
“[G]illespie edged past Stewart by just over a percentage point — fewer than 4,500 votes. … The nation was watching Virginia as a political laboratory for how the political parties handle the deep divisions that followed last year’s election of President Trump. The establishment forces seemed to win out, as Virginia voters resisted efforts to pull further to the right or left. Perriello channeled the energy -- and endorsement -- of progressive leader Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) as he tried to shake up the Democratic Party, but fell short in his bid to bring in enough new voters from among the young and working class to overcome Northam’s command of the Democratic machine, including the endorsement of nearly every Democratic elected leader in state or federal office.” http://wapo.st/2srh5cL
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- THE OBAMACARE POLITICAL WAR: Save My Care -- a group working to pressure lawmakers not to kill the Affordable Care Act -- is spending six figures on radio ads in Alaska, Maine, Nevada and West Virginia to urge senators to oppose repealing the law.
-- SCRIPT from the West Virginia ad: “Behind closed doors in Washington, they’re working in secret to rush through a health-care repeal bill that will devastate care for West Virginians – hitting our rural communities and hospitals the hardest But it can’t pass without Senator Capito. She’ll be a deciding vote. She’ll decide whether your costs go up by thousands of dollars … whether you’re one of the hundred twenty thousand West Virginians who will lose coverage altogether.
“Capito will decide whether your rural hospital can keep its doors open. … whether Medicaid is gutted … whether you or your loved one will lose access to opioid abuse treatment. Capito will even decide whether insurers can impose lifetime limits on your coverage. Unless Senator Capito votes no on healthcare repeal, the doors to affordable healthcare for West Virginia could be closed for good. Call Senator Capito at 304-347-5372 and tell her to vote no on health-care repeal.” Audio of all the radio spotshttp://bit.ly/2tkTjf7
COMING ATTRACTIONS -- “Meadows: Freedom Caucus eyeing $1.5 trillion debt ceiling increase,” by Rachael Bade: “Some House Freedom Caucus conservatives want to raise the debt ceiling by a smaller amount than the Trump Administration would like -- just long enough to clear the 2018 mid-term elections, the group’s leader said Tuesday. The Freedom Caucus has not taken an official position on a specific number. But Chairman Mark Meadows emerged from a group meeting Tuesday night saying some of his conservative compadres are looking at a $1.5 trillion lift in the nation’s borrowing cap. The North Carolina Republican said that’s smaller than the $2.5 trillion he believes the White House wants.” http://politi.co/2tl0GDn
-- NOTE: These decisions are driven by anticipated market reaction. The GOP leadership and the White House are unlikely to agree to anything that will rattle markets.
INTERESTING READ -- “Jewish Groups Struggle to Gain White House Access Points,” by Jerusalem Post’s Michael Wilner: “Jewish American organizations long active in Washington politics are struggling to communicate with the Trump administration, scavenging through old Rolodexes and e-mail lists to find points of access into the president’s small policy team. A traditional structure governed these communications before the Trump era: Presidents since Jimmy Carter have hired White House Jewish liaisons to serve as point men for the community. But the position has been vacant since January 20, and the White House has no plans to fill it, a senior administration official told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.” http://bit.ly/2t0OurM
THE JUICE …
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Country Star Kalie Shorr will sing her hit “Fight Like A Girl” at Congressional Women’s Softball Game (CWSG) one week from today, June 21 at 7 p.m. at Watkins Recreation Center. Shorr’s song has received over 1.6 million streams on Spotify and is the walk-up song for the Member team co-captain Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.). Celebrity base umpires for the game include Mystics STAR Elena Della Donne, Erica May-Scherzer, Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer’s wife, and Monica Abbott, the top female softball player in the nation (and first to sign a $1-million contract). The CWSG raises funds for the Young Survival Coalition and is taking place the same week as the 45th anniversary of Title IX.
-- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The League of Conservation Voters is launching a national summer-long campaign on Wednesday afternoon called “Our Lands, Our Vote.” They are spending $500,000 initially to support national monuments, and the campaign will try to submit 250,000 comments to Interior in support of protecting them.
-- THE SPIGOT IS STILL OPEN IN GEORGIA: The GOP leadership aligned Congressional Leadership Fund disclosed another $105,514 in Georgia’s sixth congressional district to boost Karen Handel and try to take down Jon Ossoff, according to an FEC report made public Tuesday.
PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION -- WHAT LUKE RUSSERT IS READING -- Restoration Hardware becoming Wawa in Georgetown? -- PoPville http://bit.ly/2tkYCej
NYT’S MIKE ISAAC in SAN FRANCISCO: “Uber Embraces Major Reforms as Travis Kalanick, the C.E.O., Steps Away”: “In Uber’s continuing attempt to repair its reputation over a series of scandals stemming from its bad-boy culture, its co-founder Travis Kalanick said he would take a leave of absence as chief executive. The company also announced it would embark on a sweeping reorganization to ensure that executives are more closely supervised by its board of directors.
“At a packed meeting with employees on Tuesday morning, Uber released 13 pages of recommendations compiled as part of an investigation into sexual harassment and other wrongdoing conducted by the former attorney general Eric H. Holder Jr. and his law firm, Covington & Burlington.
“But even as Uber promised to reform itself, an exchange between board members onstage highlighted the company’s challenges. In front of employees, the board member Arianna Huffington talked about how having one female director typically leads to more female directors. David Bonderman, a fellow board member and a founding partner at the private equity firm TPG, replied that adding more women to the board would result in ‘more talking.’ The remark left people aghast, according to those who were there, and set off a storm of criticism on Twitter. Mr. Bonderman later apologized to Ms. Huffington and Uber’s employees in an email, before resigning from the board a few hours later.” http://nyti.ms/2snxNcu … Holder’s reporthttp://bit.ly/2s00cEM
SCOOP -- “Most Trump real estate now sold to secretive buyers,” by USA Today’s Nick Penzenstadler, Steve Reilly and John Kelly: “Since President Trump won the Republican nomination, the majority of his companies’ real estate sales are to secretive shell companies that obscure the buyers’ identities, a USA TODAY investigation has found. Over the last 12 months, about 70% of buyers of Trump properties were limited liability companies – corporate entities that allow people to purchase property without revealing all of the owners’ names. That compares with about 4% of buyers in the two years before.” https://usat.ly/2sncIyu
DROPPING OUT -- “Brian Burns withdraws as Trump’s nominee for Ambassador to Ireland,” by Irish Central’s Niall O’Dowd: “Brian F. Burns, the US ambassador-designate to Ireland has withdrawn his name from consideration for the job, citing health issues, IrishCentral has learned. It is believed that Burns and President Trump exchanged letters in which the attorney and leading Irish American philanthropist revealed his reasons for stepping aside. Burns, 81, was considered a remarkably good choice by Trump, given his long career of devotion to Irish issues, including the creation of the John J. Burns Library at Boston College and as a senior official of the American Ireland Fund.” http://bit.ly/2tkT83r
POLITICO MAGAZINE: “Meet the Two Princes Reshaping the Middle East: But for good or ill?” by Simon Henderson: “The dramatic and sudden effort to isolate Qatar, like the fateful intervention before it in Yemen, sprang from the shared vision of two princes. Depending on your point of view, they may be the harbingers of a new and better Middle East—or reckless architects of disaster. Indeed, the region’s most important relationship may be the dynamic duo of Muhammad bin Salman, the 31-year-old deputy crown prince of Saudi Arabia, and Muhammad bin Zayed, the 56-year-old crown prince of Abu Dhabi, the lead sheikhdom of the United Arab Emirates. ... Together, they have shrewdly cultivated President Donald Trump, who is eager to show that he has a new strategy for defeating terrorism and confronting Tehran.” http://politi.co/2ruILZl
-- “Trump’s move to deport Iraqi Christians stirs outcry,” by Nahal Toosi: “President Donald Trump is facing anger and potential political blowback as his administration ramps up efforts to deport Iraqi Christians, a group he’d pledged to protect from what the U.S. calls a genocide in the Middle East. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents over the weekend detained dozens of Iraqi Christians and others to send back to Iraq. Many of them were picked up in Michigan, a swing state that Trump barely won in 2016 and the home of a sizable number of Christians from Muslim-majority countries who backed Trump during the presidential campaign.” http://politi.co/2rg856c
MEDIWATCH -- “Layoffs To Hit HuffPost This Week,” by BuzzFeed’s Steven Perlberg: “The HuffPost newsroom is bracing for a round of layoffs this week, according to four people familiar with the matter. The cuts are said to be coming as early as Wednesday. ... The Wall Street Journal reported last week that about 15% of employees, or 2,100 people, will lose their jobs at Yahoo and AOL, which have become a combined entity called Oath.” http://bzfd.it/2sn5OcV
SPOTTED -- at Walter Russell Mead’s 65th birthday party last night: Elliott Abrams, Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and his wife Anna, Scooter Libby, former Pakistani ambassador Husain Haqqani, Adam Garfinkle, Ben Haddad, Hannah Thoburn. Cotton gave a toast.
SPOTTED: Justin Fairfax, newly elected Virginia Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor of Virginia, thanking his family, friends and supporters last night at Arlington’s William Jeffrey’s Tavern ... Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y) joining callers at the DCCC last night making phone calls in support of Jon Ossoff ahead of the special election. The phone bank was organized by Slaughter and Democrats in the NY delegation. Picshttp://bit.ly/2snsBVEhttp://bit.ly/2s9Fd0w … University of Michigan Football head Coach Jim Harbaugh and UM Grad Ryan Eaton of Quicken Loans government relations team in the Delta Sky360 Club taking in the Nationals-Braves Game on Tuesday night in DC. Pichttp://bit.ly/2ruKC0v
OUT AND ABOUT – Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Sergio Gor hosted an off the record Bourbon tasting last night in the senator’s Russell office featuring four of Kentucky’s best bourbons. SPOTTED: Tara Palmeri, Gabby Morrongiello, Paul Bedard, Donna Cassata, Ted Fioraliso, Peter Doocy, Doug Stafford, Matthew Hawes, Alex Pappas, Juliegrace Brufke, Walt Cronkite, Michael Memoli, Jeremy Herb, Burgess Everett, Suzanne Kianpour, Matt Boyle, Amanda House, Nihal Krishan, Alex Bolton, Cherie Paquette, Rob Lockwood, Elise Norris, Kerry Young, Andrew Desiderio, Kevin Cirilli.
-- SPOTTED at the 17th annual interfaith Ramadan Iftar dinner last night, hosted at the Mt. Vernon estate of Ray and Shaista Mahmood: DHS Secretary John Kelly, Former DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff and Meryl Chertoff, Reps. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.), Andre Carson (D-Ind.), Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Md.), Mark Sanford (R-S.C.), former Reps. Jim Moran (D-Va.) and Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), Indonesian Ambassador Budi Bowoleksono and Reshanty Bowoleksono, Japanese Ambassador Kenichirō Sasae, Pakistani Ambassador Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, former U.S. Ambassador for Religious Freedom Rabbi David Saperstein, Father Mark Morozowich of Catholic University, Imam Mohamed Maged of the ADAMS Center in Sterling, Virginia, Pastor Bob Roberts of Northwood Community Baptist Church, Keller, Texas, Imam Hamza Yusuf Hanson, Grover and Samah Norquist, Suhail A. Khan and Jana Plat, John Malcolm of the Heritage Foundation and Mary Lee Malcolm.
-- The Institute for Education and Coach Kathy Kemper partnered with Sylvie Lucas, the Ambassador of Luxembourg to the United States, for their #IFEWomeninPower dinner last night at the Grand Duchy Embassy in Dupont Circle. Jennifer Griffin, who covers national security and the Pentagon at Fox News, was the special guest in an off the record convo. SPOTTED: Nancy Cordes, Kristen Honey, Finland Ambassador to the U.S. Kristi Kauppi, Jordanian Amb. Dina Kawar, Rwanda Amb. Mathilde Mukantabana, Jennifer Rudy, Sita Sonty, Cori Zarek, Cecilia Vega, and Jan Smith.
TRANSITIONS – The DNC has hired Sabrina Singh to serve as its deputy communication director in charge of the regional media program and coalitions media. She comes from American Bridge, where she served as the deputy communications director. ... Whitney Mitchell Brennan has been promoted to communications director for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), previously she served as deputy communications director. Alexandria Phillips joined Gillibrand’s office this week as press secretary. A HFA alum, she was previously director of surrogates and media affairs for Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer. …
… Mercury has hired Fernando Espuelas, a veteran journalist who co-founded StarMedia, to be co-chairman. http://politi.co/2rpLBDP ... Cambridge Analytica has named Ben Shankle and Laquan Austion as VPs to jointly lead the firm’s political operations in D.C. Shankle most recently spent two years as the data director for the Republican Party of Florida. Austion most recently worked on Lyft’s government relations team where he oversaw all east coast markets. http://politi.co/2rpYpdi
BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Kristin Huguet, in comms at Apple
BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Brian Fallon, CNN contributor, president of Barracks Row Media and senior advisor for Priorities USA. How he’s celebrating: “I will spend most of the day fending off bad jokes about sharing a birthday with Donald Trump. Next week, I am going home to Boston with my wife and kids, and my brother and I will be at David Ortiz’s number retirement ceremony at Fenway on June 23rd.” Read his Playbook Plus Q&A:http://politi.co/2s9kSbR
BIRTHDAYS: Mack McLarty, No Labels Vice-Chair and former Chief of Staff to Bill Clinton (h/t Dennis Craig) ... Dan Schwerin, former director of speechwriting for Hillary Clinton ... House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer is 78 ... Rep. Bob Gibbs (R-Ohio) is 63 ... Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Wisc.) is 73 ... former Rep. Billy Tauzin (R-La.) is 74 ... The U.S. Army is 242 … Campbell Brown, Facebook’s head of news partnerships (h/t Erika Masonhall) ... Leon Wieseltier is 65 ... Russian-born billionaire and philanthropist Leonard “Len” Blavatnik is 6-0 (h/ts Jewish Insider) ... Anthony Zampelli, LA for Rep. Dan Donovan, is 25 (h/t Joe Kalmin) ... Christopher Gahan, former COS to Sens. Pat Toomey and Judd Gregg who is now VP of federal relations and GR at Northwestern Mutual, is 43 ... Amber Marchand, managing director at Hamilton Place Strategies (h/t Ken Spain) ... Alexandra Veitch, VP of gov’t relations at CSRA ... Regan Page is 27 ... Danny Gaynor, in strategy and messaging at Nike ... cheese-loving Kristen Bartoloni, partner at Silver Street Strategies …
... Sara Armstrong, COS of the RNC (h/t Ryan Mahoney) … Iowa Republican donoactivist Bruce Rastetter is 61 … Chris Bleak … Brussels-based Politico tech reporter Laurens Cerulus is 3-0 ... Bill Wasserman of M+R (h/t Jon Haber) ... Jon Lentz, editor-in-chief at City & State ... Shomik Sarkar, former director of reporting for HFA, now a data scientist at the DNC (h/t Eric Heggie) ... Sarah Chen ... WaPo’s Josh Hicks, covering Maryland politics, is 37 ... Leslie Ogden ... former Peace Corps Director Aaron Williams … Chris Liddell-Westefeld … Carol Apelt ... Quinn Johnson … Mary Ann Preskul … Linda Beitelspacher … Scot Ross, the pride of Pittsburgh … Dee Simpson (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... Brandon Hall is 42 ... Rachel Williams Ellis ... Ashley Samelson McGuire ... Roland Rydstrom ... Kenan Block, an MSNBC alum, is 63 ... Pat Proctor is 46 ... Bob de Maria .. David Parsons ... Andrew Bair ... Boy George is 56 ... International Tennis Hall of Famer Steffi Graf is 48 (h/ts AP)
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Happy Father’s Day -- JAY SEKULOW: Trump is not under investigation -- Scalise update -- WHITE HOUSE week ahead -- KNOWING MARK CORALLO – SCHUMER’s first big test -- WEEKEND READS – RODAY/MARRE wedding pool report

Happy Father’s Day -- JAY SEKULOW: Trump is not under investigation -- Scalise update -- WHITE HOUSE week ahead -- KNOWING MARK CORALLO – SCHUMER’s first big test -- WEEKEND READS – RODAY/MARRE wedding pool report
by [email protected] (Daniel Lippman) via POLITICO - TOP Stories
URL: http://ift.tt/2soWHWP
Good Sunday morning. HAPPY FATHER’S DAY! SPEAKER PAUL RYAN discusses what he’s learning as a father as his kids approach their teenage years. http://bit.ly/2rJIO3F
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- Speaker Paul Ryan spent the weekend at the Homestead in Virginia for his annual “Team Ryan” summer outing. His message to K Streeters and donors: the Republican agenda is on track. The Wisconsin Republican laid out his preferred timeline for Obamacare repeal bill, saying that it will be done by mid-summer and tax reform will be completed by the end of the year. Ryan said that he expected the Senate to pass their health care bill before the July 4 recess and that would give House Republicans the rest of July to take action. Ryan said he has been talking to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell daily. Ryan also was bullish on infrastructure, telling the group that a series of infrastructure bills will be passed by the end of the year. SPOTTED: Chris Russell, Bob Wood, Chris Giblin, David Tamasi, Richard Hunt, Ray Berman, Ed Kutler and Nicole Gustafson.
STATEMENTS FROM PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP FROM CAMP DAVID -- @realDonaldTrump at 6:38 a.m.: “The MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN agenda is doing very well despite the distraction of the Witch Hunt. Many new jobs, high business enthusiasm,..” … at 6:46 a.m.: “...massive regulation cuts, 36 new legislative bills signed, great new S.C.Justice, and Infrastructure, Healthcare and Tax Cuts in works!” …at 7:02 a.m.: “The new Rasmussen Poll, one of the most accurate in the 2016 Election, just out with a Trump 50% Approval Rating.That’s higher than O’s #’s!”
-- @kylegriffin1: “For reference (spot the outlier): Gallup 38 … Economist/YouGov 42 … Reuters/Ipsos 40 … PPP 41 … Quinnipiac 34 … Rasmussen 50”
TAKE NOTE: Trump had just one surrogate on the Sunday shows: a member of his legal team. Not one Cabinet secretary or adviser talking about policy or politics.
SUNDAY BEST, PART I -- JAY SEKULOW tells CHUCK TODD on NBC’S “MEET THE PRESS” that the president isn’t under investigation -- TODD: “The president tweeted earlier this week, ‘I am being investigated for firing the F.B.I. director by the man who told me to fire the F.B.I. director. Witch hunt.’ So let me start with this. When did the president become aware that he was officially under investigation by the special counsel?” SEKULOW: “The president is not under investigation by the special counsel. The tweet from the president was in response to the five anonymous sources that were purportedly leaking information to The Washington Post about a potential investigation of the president. But the president, as James Comey said in his testimony and as we know as of today, the president has not been and is not under investigation.”
-- MARCO RUBIO to JAKE TAPPER on CNN’s “STATE OF THE UNION” -- TAPPER: “Some of your Senate colleagues, as you know, are concerned that President Trump is preparing to fire Mueller or Mueller and Rosenstein. How would you react if he did?” RUBIO: “Well, first of all, that’s not going to happen. I don’t believe it’s going to happen. And here’s what I would say. The best thing that could happen for the president, and the country, is a full and credible investigation. I really, truly believe that. If we want to put all this behind us, let’s find out what happened, let’s put it out there, and let’s not undermine the credibility of the investigation. And so my view on it is that’s the best thing that could happen for the president and for the country, and I believe ultimately that’s what will happen, irrespective of all the other stuff that’s going on out there.”
-- SEKULOW GETS TESTY under sharp questioning from Chris Wallace on "Fox News Sunday": "I do not appreciate you putting words in my mouth, when I've been crystal clear that the president is not and has not been under investigation."
SOME HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE PRESIDENT’S WEEK -- MONDAY: Trump has Panamanian President Juan Carlos Varela and his wife to the White House. He will participate in an American Technology Council roundtable at 5 p.m. WEDNESDAY: The president is going to Iowa. THURSDAY: The Congressional picnic.
THE BIG SUNDAY READ -- NYT, A1 -- “How Michael Flynn’s Disdain for Limits Led to a Legal Quagmire,” by Nick Confessore, Matt Rosenberg and Danny Hakim: “Mr. Flynn decided that the military’s loss would be his gain: He would parlay his contacts, his disdain for conventional bureaucracy, and his intelligence career battling Al Qaeda into a lucrative business advising cybersecurity firms and other government contractors. Over the next two years he would sign on as a consultant to nearly two dozen companies, while carving out a niche as a sought-after author and speaker -- and ultimately becoming a top adviser to President Trump.
“‘I’ve always had that entrepreneurial spirit,’ Mr. Flynn said in an interview in October 2015. In the military, he added, ‘I learned that following the way you’re supposed to do things isn’t always the way to accomplish a task.’ But instead of lofting him into the upper ranks of Beltway bandits, where some other top soldiers have landed, his foray into consulting has become a legal and political quagmire, driven by the same disdain for boundaries that once propelled his rise in the military.” http://nyti.ms/2sDrCkx
SCALISE UPDATE -- “Hospital says Scalise showing ‘signs of improvement’ after additional surgery,” by Rebecca Morin: “[House] Majority Whip Steve Scalise is showing ‘signs of improvement’ and is ‘speaking with his loved ones’ following an additional surgery, according to an update provided by MedStar Washington Hospital Center on Saturday. The hospital also downgraded his condition from critical to serious.
“‘Congressman Steve Scalise is in serious condition. He underwent another surgery today, but continues to show signs of improvement,’ according to a statement from the hospital, courtesy of the Scalise family. ‘He is more responsive, and is speaking with his loved ones. The Scalise family greatly appreciates the outpouring of thoughts and prayers.’” http://politi.co/2tBoHG5
-- TEAM SCALISE’s video from Thursday’s Congressional baseball game http://bit.ly/2rsXeGe
FROM TYSON LOBBYIST MATT MIKA’S FAMILY: “We want to thank the team at George Washington University Hospital for their world-class care, and we continue to be grateful beyond words for the heroic actions of the U.S. Capitol Police this week. In addition, the positive thoughts, prayers and words of encouragement from across the nation have meant the world to Matt and to all of us.
“Matt has undergone additional surgery and his physicians have reported positive results. Matt will remain in the ICU through at least this weekend. He continues to communicate with us through notes, and even signed the game ball for the Congressional Baseball Game. Matt especially valued the professionalism of the officers of the Capitol Police, and would appreciate contributions to the Capitol Police Memorial Fund, one of the designated charities at Thursday night’s ballgame.
“While we know there will be difficult and challenging days ahead for Matt and our family, the physicians and specialists at Matt’s side expect a full recovery. This will be our final update pending Matt’s discharge from the hospital. We again ask for your understanding and respect of our family’s privacy.”
FOR YOUR RADAR -- “Navy stops search for 7 missing sailors after bodies found,” by AP’s Mari Yamaguchi in Yokosuka, Japan: “The search for seven U.S. Navy sailors missing after their destroyer collided with a container ship off Japan was called off Sunday after several bodies were found in the ship’s flooded compartments, including sleeping quarters. Vice Adm. Joseph Aucoin, the commander of the Navy’s 7th Fleet, described the damage and flooding as extensive, including a big puncture under the waterline. The crew had to fight to keep the ship afloat, he said, and the ship’s captain is lucky to have survived.” http://apne.ws/2sGAXc0
BLAST FROM THE PAST -- KNOWING MARK CORALLO: “Meet the man managing Trump’s biggest crisis yet,” by Eliana Johnson, Josh Dawsey, and Josh Gerstein: “Veteran GOP operative Mark Corallo is known for accepting tough crisis-management cases, but even he wasn’t daredevil enough to accept the job an embattled President Trump considered him for last month: White House communications director. Instead, Corallo chose to stay outside the building, becoming the top spokesman for Trump’s personal lawyer Marc Kasowitz.
“In his new role, he finds himself handling the White House’s defense against independent counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian interference in the presidential election, which has expanded to include inquiry into whether Trump himself tried to obstruct the investigation. Corallo had never met Trump or Kasowitz before taking the job but is now routinely in the West Wing several times a week, strategizing with a temperamental and media-obsessed president who sees himself as his own best spokesman.
“‘I think I will be more help to the president on the outside than I would have been on the inside,’ Corallo told POLITICO.” With cameos from Karl Rove, David Ayres and Ed McFaddenhttp://politi.co/2seOZjF
-- FLASHBACK: Corallo speaking to Isaac Dovere in May about Trump staff: “They’re hostages.” http://politi.co/2rKcOMS
SCHUMER’S FIRST BIG TEST -- “Democrats to step up attacks on GOP’s Obamacare repeal effort,” by Burgess Everett: “Democratic senators are planning to hold the Senate floor until at least midnight on Monday to thrash Senate Republicans for refusing to hold committee hearings on their health-care overhaul, according to several people familiar with the plan. The round of speeches is being organized by Sens. Patty Murray of Washington state and Brian Schatz of Hawaii.
“But on the more weighty question of whether to object to the GOP’s committee hearings or refusing to allow routine business in the Senate regarding nomination votes or uncontroversial matters, the party has made no final decision. While the party's liberal wing is demanding that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York and his team shut the Senate down, Schumer has made no decision and often tries to forge consensus in his caucus before executing party strategy.
“Though several sources on the party’s left believe Schumer may be open to the idea, Democratic leaders have been resistant to procedural obstruction thus far. They believe blocking unrelated matters could shift the spotlight from Republicans' secretive process to Democratic obstruction. And it could set expectations high among the party's base that Democrats can stop the repeal, when in reality if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has the votes the party will be powerless to stop him.” http://politi.co/2seOyWF
-- IT’S WORTH NOTING: Since assuming the top Senate leadership job after the 2016 election, Schumer has made it his leadership style to govern by consensus. Depending on how the Obamacare repeal effort plays out, this could be test for how he’ll appease his frustrated left flank while not overplaying his hand.
THE JUICE …
-- Community Catalyst Action Fund is launching a seven-figure TV and radio ad buy targeting Republican senators in Alaska, Maine, Nevada and West Virginia on Obamacare repeal. The TV ads, produced by GMMB, will run for the next two weeks and feature a mother whose son has chronic asthma and requires frequent trips to the doctor. The radio ad, also produced by GMMB, and digital ad component are part of the “Keep Care at Home” campaign, which is focused on Medicaid cuts, and will also include events in each state. The TV adshttp://bit.ly/2tglz3j … The radio adhttp://bit.ly/2seKt4W
THE LATEST IN GEORGIA -- TOO CLOSE TO CALL: “Georgia special election hurtles toward nail-biting finish,” by Steven Shepard: “As the most expensive House race in history rushes toward the finish line Tuesday, the latest public polls are unanimous: The Georgia special election between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel is too close to call. The race for the suburban Atlanta seat, closely watched for clues about the shape of the 2018 midterm elections, appears to be within a few percentage points — with perhaps the slightest edge to Ossoff, the 30-year-old Democrat seeking to wrest away a traditionally Republican seat in the first major election of Donald Trump’s presidency. … The current state of play: Of the six public polls conducted in June, Ossoff leads in five of them — and hits the 50-percent mark in each of the five — with the fifth showing a tie.” http://politi.co/2rt57uY
-- NYT's ALEX BURNS and JONATHAN MARTIN: "High-Stakes Referendum on Trump Takes Shape in a Georgia Special Election"http://nyti.ms/2rEqr50
SUNDAY BEST, PART II -- JOHN DICKERSON speaks to SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FLA.) on CBS’S FACE THE NATION -- DICKERSON: “The president has called the investigations a witch hunt. What’s your opinion of that?” RUBIO: “Well, I know he feels very strongly about it. My advice to the president is what I communicated publicly. The way I’ve tried to communicate to everyone on this issue. And that is this. It is in the best interest of the president and the country to have a full investigation. If I were the president, I would be welcoming this investigation. I would ask that it be thorough and completed expeditiously and be very cooperative with it. That’s what ultimately I anticipate they will do. That’s in the best interest of the president. I really believe that. I think it’s in the best interest of our country that we have a full-scale investigation that looks at everything so that we can move forward.”
DICKERSON: “So regardless of what you may think about James Comey’s firing as FBI director, you think it should be investigated?” RUBIO: “Well, I just think it’s important to answer questions. Because otherwise, if people have any doubts, it undermines confidence in our system of government, in our elections, in our leaders. As I said, the best thing that can happen for the president and for America is that we have a full-scale investigation that is credible, that it reaches its conclusion one way or the other so that we can move on. But at the same time be knowledgeable. We have to know everything the Russians did and how they did it so that we can prevent this from happening in the future.”
RUBIO talks with CHUCK TODD on NBC’s “MEET THE PRESS” -- TODD: “The more the administration tries to soften the sanctions in the House, at any point, do you understand, if some people see that as circumstantial evidence in this probe?” RUBIO: “I could understand how some people would make that argument. I could also tell you though that I personally believe that at the core of the resistance is not the president. And I don’t think the president himself has a problem with additional sanctions on Russia. I think the concern actually comes from the State Department and for the following reason: they argue that they are trying to get the Russians to be more cooperative on a number of fronts and that this could set us back. It's a legitimate argument, I’ve thought about it, I don't agree with it. And you saw the majority of my colleagues didn’t agree with it this week.”
POWER PLAYBOOKER – DAVID PETRAEUS to PBS NewsHour’s Judy Woodruff on why Americans should support staying engaged in Afghanistan: “This is a generational struggle. This is not something that is going to be won in a few years. We’re not going to take a hill, plant the flag and go home to a victory parade. We need to be there for the long haul but in a way that’s sustainable. You know we’ve been in Korea for 65-plus years because there’s an important national interest for that. We were in Europe for a very long period of time, still there of course, and actually with a renewed emphasis given Russia’s aggressive actions.” Videohttp://bit.ly/2rF21IN
THE BIG QUESTION AHEAD OF TRUMP’S TECH SUMMIT -- “CEOs Have Access to Trump, but Do They Have Clout?,” by WSJ’s Vanessa Fuhrmans and Peter Nicholas: “When tech industry executives gather at the White House Monday, brainstorming ways to modernize government will be on the agenda. But on display will be President Donald Trump’s evolving relationship with America’s corporate chieftains. Some 300 business leaders have met with Mr. Trump since he took office promising the nation’s top executives a direct line to the Oval Office and a chance to shape economic policy.
“The discussions have helped the president project an image of CEO-in-chief as he awaits a major legislative victory and have given CEOs a voice in initiatives like the administration’s push to expand apprenticeship programs. But corporate leaders are learning about the limits of their clout. Hopes for an overhaul of the corporate-tax code this year are fading, some executives and corporate lobbyists say, as the White House and lawmakers struggle to reach consensus on a plan that could get through Congress. Mr. Trump’s move to quit the Paris climate accord has been a stinging lesson for some that White House face time doesn’t always translate into influence.” http://on.wsj.com/2rEUp8V
WHAT K STREET IS READING -- “Republicans debating remedies for corporate tax avoidance,” by Reuters’ David Morgan: “President Donald Trump and Republican leaders in Congress will soon confront a complex challenge for tax reform: how to limit U.S. corporate tax avoidance schemes that take advantage of low tax rates in foreign countries. Congressional and administration staff have begun to examine options to address profit-shifting schemes that include so-called transfer pricing, earnings stripping and tax inversions. A decision on how to handle these in tax legislation could come before Congress leaves town for its one-week July 4 recess on June 29, officials and lobbyists said.” http://reut.rs/2seHWaU
WAPO’S ABBY PHILLIP -- “Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke rescinds acceptance of Homeland Security post”: “‘Late Friday, Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke Jr. formally notified Secretary of Homeland Security John F. Kelly that he had rescinded his acceptance of the agency’s offer to join DHS as an assistant secretary,’ said Craig Peterson, an adviser to Clarke. ‘Sheriff Clarke is 100 percent committed to the success of President Trump and believes his skills could be better utilized to promote the president’s agenda in a more aggressive role.’” http://wapo.st/2sDJaNA
MORE ON MEGYN KELLY -- “Unedited Putin Interview Reveals A Missed Opportunity For Megyn Kelly and America,” by Yashar Ali in HuffPost: “As Megyn Kelly and NBC News face a firestorm over her interview with InfoWars’ Alex Jones, unedited footage from her recent interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin shows a nervous Kelly who asked the authoritarian leader softball questions and failed to hold him accountable on key topics. Most troubling, Kelly devoted precious time in her short interview to a question that led one former CIA Russia analyst to say that it sounded as if Putin had written the question himself.
“In the full, unedited discussion, obtained by HuffPost, Kelly repeatedly fails to interrupt the Russian president while he rambles in his responses. She also asks Putin questions he can easily dispute. The last question Kelly asked Putin, which was not aired, was startling in its pandering. ‘We have been here in St. Petersburg for about a week now. And virtually every person we have met on the street says what they respect about you is they feel that you have returned dignity to Russia, that you’ve returned Russia to a place of respect. You’ve been in the leadership of this country for 17 years now. Has it taken any sort of personal toll on you?’” http://bit.ly/2rsxPwo
MEDIAWATCH -- “The Danger of Ignoring Alex Jones,” by Charles J. Skyes in the NYT: “When Mr. Jones was merely a marginal figure on the paranoid right, the case could plausibly be made that he was better left in obscurity. But now that, at least according to Mr. Jones, the president of the United States has praised him and thanked him for the role he played in his election victory, it’s too late to make that argument. We can’t keep ignoring the fringe. We have to expose it.” http://nyti.ms/2rsZ61q … Charlie Sykes is an MSNBC contributor
TV TONIGHT -- MSNBC will air a special edition of “The Point with Ari Melber” at 5 p.m. for the 45th anniversary of the Watergate break in. The show features Tom Brokaw, Dick Cavett, former Watergate special prosecutors and never-before-seen documents from the Justice Department’s Watergate Special Prosecution Force.
BONUS GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Daniel Lippman:
--“Young Men Are Playing Video Games Instead of Getting Jobs. That's OK. (For Now),” by Peter Suderman in Reason in the July 2017: “A military shooter might offer a simulation of being a crack special forces soldier. A racing game might simulate learning to handle a performance sports car. It’s a simulation of being an expert. It’s a way to fulfil a fantasy. That fantasy is one of work, purpose, and social and professional success.” http://bit.ly/2twpXdC
--“Can Democrats Fix the Party?” by Rolling Stone’s Tim Dickinson: “Trump’s victory exposed the party establishment as utterly broken – now Dems hope to rebuild in time for a 2018 comeback.” http://rol.st/2rAh2eF
--“What Makes a Glass House the Ideal Home for a Communist Gynecologist,” by Cody Delistraty in JStor: “The windows in the waiting area are high, allowing light to enter, but also arranged so that infertile women waiting for the doctor weren’t forced to see the Dalsace children playing in the backyard.” http://bit.ly/2syDZhU
--“The Ideal Iceland May Only Exist in Your Mind,” by Taffy Brodesser-Akner in Afar magazine: “But you can, and should, still go in search of it.” http://bit.ly/2tBnmzi
--“Vatican tailors, cobblers try to adapt to Francis’s ‘papal athleisure,’” by Claire Giangravè in Cruxnow: “Pope Francis’s emphasis on simplicity and frugality is a hit all around the world, but it’s produced just a bit of backlash among fashion-conscious Italians, including an exclusive club of tailors and shoemakers who outfit pontiffs -- some of whom are a little nostalgic for the days when being pope also meant dressing to the nines.” http://bit.ly/2sBCccz
--“The Fake Hermit,” by Natalia Portinari in piaui: “Thomas [Pynchon] was very thin and very handsome, like a Romeo kind of guy. He was like an Italian lover, very, very sexy. He wasn’t interested in money. He had a very dry sense of humor, so that’s why we got along so well. He never hurt my feelings. He tried to be a hippie, but it wasn’t easy for him. He was a hard worker.” http://bit.ly/2roGnnU
--“What Duck Sex Reveals about Human Nature,” by Johann Grolle in Der Spiegel: “Copulation in most birds is achieved by a cloacal kiss, just an apposition of orifices. This is the essential reason why birds are so beautiful. Since they have the freedom of choice, females exhibit aesthetic preferences. And, as a result of these preferences, males developed amazingly elaborate ornaments.” http://bit.ly/2sC9W9A
--“How the U.S. Triggered a Massacre in Mexico,” by ProPublica’s Ginger Thompson, co-published in NatGeo: “There’s no missing the signs that something unspeakable happened. Entire blocks lie in ruins. In March 2011 gunmen from the Zetas cartel swept through like a flash flood, demolishing homes and businesses and kidnapping and killing dozens, possibly hundreds, of men, women and children. The destruction and disappearances went on in fits and starts for weeks.” http://bit.ly/2sHUo43
--“If Israel were smart,” by Sara Roy on Gaza in the London Review of Books: “[A]lmost half the labour force [do not] any means to earn a living. Unemployment – especially youth unemployment – is the defining feature of life. It now hovers around 42 per cent (it has been higher), but for young people (between the ages of 15 and 29) it stands at 60 per cent. Everyone is consumed by the need to find a job or some way of earning money. ‘Salaries control people’s minds,’ one resident said.” http://bit.ly/2roQAR5
--“Philip Roth’s Newark,” by Steven Malanga in City Journal: “The city at its peak and in its decline are the novelist’s two greatest characters.” http://bit.ly/2sa9tu0 (h/t ALDaily.com)
--“‘A reckoning for our species’: the philosopher prophet of the Anthropocene,” by Alex Blasdel in The Guardian: “Timothy Morton wants humanity to give up some of its core beliefs, from the fantasy that we can control the planet to the notion that we are ‘above’ other beings. His ideas might sound weird, but they’re catching on.” http://bit.ly/2rF51QB (h/t Longform.org)
--“What It Would Really Take To Sink A Modern Aircraft Carrier,” by Robert Farley in Jalopnik: “Even a supersonic cruise missile can take twenty minutes to reach its target area at maximum range, and a carrier maneuvering at high speed can move ten miles in the same period of time. A massive aircraft carrier can move surprisingly fast for something weighing over 100,000 tons, with a top speed of more than 30 knots, or about 35 miles an hour, which is what you get when you go for nuclear power.” http://bit.ly/2roV3Dy
--“After Oranges,” by Wyatt Williams in Oxford American, discussing “Oranges,” by John McPhee: “Fifty years later, Oranges reads as an agile survey of world history, a vivid period piece of changing American foodways, and an early classic by a master just beginning to find his form ... Today, no one is quite sure if Florida’s oranges will survive” http://bit.ly/2tbvwPw (h/t TheBrowser.com)
WEEKEND WEDDINGS – Zack Roday, press secretary for Team Ryan, and Alleigh Marre, who does press for HHS, got married on Saturday with the ceremony and reception at Rust Manor House in Leesburg, Virginia. The bride came down the aisle to “At Last,” and the wedding was officiated by Zack’s childhood friend and Best Man Ben Horwitz. The couple met on Gov. Scott Walker’s campaign in Wisconsin. Picshttp://bit.ly/2sHijAK ... http://bit.ly/2rEL5Cb ... http://bit.ly/2sE16r1
--SPOTTED: Gov. Scott and Tonette Walker, Matt Gorman and Annie Clark, Jesse Hunt and Kim Kaiser, Ian and Elsie Prior, Chris and Andrea Grant, Jake Kastan, Kevin Seifert, Betsy Ankney, Eli Miller, Jason Heath, Alexandra Clark and Scott Dillie, Bryant Avondoglio and Ellie Krust.
--“Cathryn Clüver, Tom Ashbrook”– N.Y. Times: “The bride, 41, is the founding executive director of the Future of Diplomacy Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. She graduated from Brown and received a master’s in European studies from the London School of Economics and a master’s in public administration from the Harvard Kennedy School. ... The groom, 61, is the host of the NPR talk show ‘On Point,’ a daily program produced at WBUR in Boston. He graduated from Yale. He is the author of ‘The Leap,’ which chronicles his time as an internet entrepreneur, after a career as a journalist.” With pichttp://nyti.ms/2soxxYq
– “Stephanie Sy, David Ariosto”: “Ms. Sy, 40, is a New York-based special on-air news correspondent for PBS and the host of Carnegie Council’s ‘Ethics Matter’ interview series, a public affairs program that is shown periodically on PBS. She graduated from the University of Pennsylvania. ... On June 26, Mr. Ariosto, 36, will begin working as a supervising producer of ‘All Things Considered,’ the NPR news program. He graduated from the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and received a master’s degree in public policy from George Mason University. ... The couple met in June 2015, at Al Jazeera America, where the bride was a news anchor and the groom an on-air reporter.” With pichttp://nyti.ms/2sMcBgR
--“Sara Randazzo, Christopher Kirkham”: “The bride, 31, is a legal reporter at The Wall Street Journal in Los Angeles. She graduated from the University of California, Los Angeles. ... The groom, 33, is also a reporter at The Journal in Los Angeles, covering the casino and hotel industries. He graduated from Northwestern, where he also received his master’s degree in journalism. ... The couple were introduced through mutual friends in New York in November 2011.” With pichttp://nyti.ms/2seYvDG
SPOTTED at the going-away party last night (with a live band) in DC for Paul Wood and Ruth Sherlock, who is leaving in two weeks to become NPR’s new Beirut correspondent (she was previously U.S. editor at The Telegraph): Susannah Cunningham, Merrit Kennedy, Susannah Wellford, Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Emily Lenzner, Suzanne Kianpour, John Hudson, Nihal Krishan, Vivek Jain, Matt Rosenberg, Karoun Demirjian, Diaa Hadid, Athena Jones, Karen Attiah.
BIRTHDAYS: Dina Powell ... WaPo’s Fred Barbash … Charlie Herman … Joanne Lipman, chief content officer at Gannett and editor in chief of USA Today … Niall Stanage, WH columnist at The Hill, is 43 ... David Wood (Mr. Beth Frerking), Pulitzer winner ... Kate Knudson ... Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) is 66 ... Rep. Paul Tonko (D-NY) is 68 ... Nick Johnston, editor at Axios, is 4-0 (h/t Bill McQuillen) … Megan Mitchell ... Bipartisan Senate alumni birthday: former Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WVa.) is 8-0 and former Sen. Mike Johanns (R-Neb.) is 67 ... David Drucker, senior political correspondent at Washington Examiner, is 46 ... Romney alum John Whitman, now press secretary for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ... HFA alum John McCarthy, COS for Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Penn.), (h/ts Fran Holuba, Anastasia Dellaccio and Ben Chang) ... Millie Harmon Meyers, public affairs at the U.S. Mission to the UN (h/t Ben) ... Geri M. Joseph is 94 ... Kenneth Lipper is 76 ... Blair Effron is 55 (h/ts Jewish Insider) ... DOT alum Ajashu Thomas ... Clare Bresnahan, executive director of She Should Run (h/t Jill Bader) ... Politico Europe’s Blanca Renedo is 29 ... Kevin Landrigan, legendary New Hampshire political correspondent ... HFA and GSG alum Chris Allen ... Bob Scutari ...
... Will Kinzel, managing director of gov’t affairs at Delta ... Jennifer Carignan ... Politico’s Claire Okrongly and Shannon Rafferty ... LifeZette’s Jim Stinson (h/t Jon Conradi) ... BuzzFeed’s Mary Ann Georgantopoulos ... Bert Gomez, Univision’s SVP of federal and state gov’t relations... Tom Readmond ... Michael Van Der Galien ... former Hardballer Jeremy Bronson, now creator of “The Mayor,” airing this fall on ABC ... former CNNer Meryl Conant Governski, now an associate at Boies, Schiller & Flexner LLP ... Zach Wilkes … Jason Kello ... Daniel Epstein is 33 ... Levi Drake ... Max Stahl is 3-0 ... Lisa Barron ... AJ Goodman ... Ron Rosenblith ... Dick Mark ... Debbie Shore (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... country singer Blake Shelton is 41 (h/t Kurt Bardella) ... Sir Paul McCartney is 75 ... Dizzy Reed (Guns N’ Roses) is 54 (h/ts AP)
submitted by feedreddit to arableaks [link] [comments]

No Help @ RSI Forums, "Please Wait"

SOLUTION: http://www.reddit.com/starcitizen/comments/202em2/no_help_rsi_forums_please_wait/cfz6rld
Step 1 Part 2--install in a different directory/drive.
Thank you dace
Summary: I downloaded a Star Citizen installer circa 10/23/2013; unfortunately no "version" tag exists on the installers themselves. However, I can say the digital signature on the file has the date Friday, October 4, 2013. When I run this installer, it correctly installs the game but I am stuck at "Please Wait." I have made specific exceptions in Windows Firewall, even turned Windows Firewall off. This does nothing.
I downloaded a newer installer (because I couldn't find the old one until later); digital signature Tuesday, November 5, 2013. This installer also correctly loads the launcher, but it won't open. I get a launcher icon in my taskbar, but no window. Clicking on it won't create a window either--it's just there.
BOTH launchers refuse to exit normally--the one that I can get to a GUI I have to "END TASK" as it ignores any attempt to close (but not minimize). Of course, no window means I can't try to close the newer launcher normally. I am running the launcher as Administrator on an Administrator account.
The generated files (StarCitizenLauncher.exe) also unfortunately have the same "version" number: 3.5.2.0.
Steps to Reproduce the Bug/Issue:
  1. Use either launcher-installer with the digital signature matching dates given. Install using all default options (as I know putting Star Citizen in Program Files is a no-no).
  2. Attempt to run the launcher.
    3a. October 2013 Launcher : Stuck at "Please Wait."
    3b. November 2013 Launcher: Doesn't even show up correctly.
Result: I have no earthly clue why this is happening.
Expected Result: The launcher should either A) appear and work (referring to the one in which the window never is drawn) or B) not sit for hours (4+) at "Please Wait" while spinning up CPU cycles and doing nothing.
Software/Hardware Configuration:
OS: Windows 8 Pro x64 (no 8.1)
ISP: Comcast, Chicago Suburbs, USA
GPU: GeForce GTX 780 driver 334.89
Supporting Information:
This is the log from the October 2013 launcher
02/22/2014 11:02:00 http://127.0.0.1:51056/mainwindow.js (143): [CIG DEBUG]Handeling Setup!
02/22/2014 11:02:00 http://127.0.0.1:51056/mainwindow.js (196): [VERSION]Launcher - 1.0.2
02/22/2014 11:02:00 http://127.0.0.1:51056/mainwindow.js (149): [CONFIG]
{"debug":1,"password":"**********","username":null}
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/images/illuminator_bottom.png:200:0]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/images/sclogo.png:200:0]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/images/expandicon.png:200:0]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Loading interop library (D:\Nate's Stuff\Documents\StarCitizen\Launcher\downloader.dll) (3.5.2.0)
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Loading interop library (D:\Nate's Stuff\Documents\StarCitizen\Launcher\patcher.dll) (3.5.2.0)
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Extracting skin file (analytics.json)
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/images/closebtn.png:200:0]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Accept queue size of (3)
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/images/ciglogo.png:200:0]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/images/mutebtn.png:200:0]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/images/minimizebtn.png:200:0]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Accept queue size of (2)
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/images/feedbodyscanlines.png:200:0]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/Electrolize.woff:200:0]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Downloader Version: 3.5.2.0
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Solid Core v0.82 () in use (S11)
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Cwd [D:\Nate's Stuff\Documents\StarCitizen\Launcher] [F4:6D:04:E4:53:B5]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Torrent Agent: -SC0082-
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Torrent Agent: -SD3520-
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Patcher Version: 3.5.2.0
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Manager state changing from (Idle) to (Start)
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Manager state changing from (Start) to (Process)
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/images/scrollbarbg.png:200:0]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/audio/phazein.wav:206:691164]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Accept queue size of (2)
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/audio/website_ui_savesettings.wav:206:354862]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/audio/website_ui_rejection.wav:206:32302]
02/22/2014 11:02:00 Response code set [/audio/music_launcher.ogg:206:4489250]
02/22/2014 11:02:01 Response code set [/audio/music_launcher.ogg:206:65307]
02/22/2014 11:02:01 Response code set [/audio/music_launcher.ogg:206:4358407]
02/22/2014 11:05:34 0x6881F2C: Timeout on connection [60.0]
submitted by SovereignGFC to starcitizen [link] [comments]

[Table] IamA guy who hand makes goat milk soap (I am not high, and I meant to do this) AMA!

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2014-07-05
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Questions Answers
Why soap? goat milk and goat cheese seem a bit more practical. what are major selling points of goat milk soap vs glycerin based soap? When I was a kid and we had the full farm going we sold cheese, yogurt, kifer, milk, and soap. Now I don't have that much time to run a full farm and go to school. Soap made the most sense from a business stand point as it is non perishable and the margins are better then the rest (less spoil and waste)
Goat milk soap has glycerin in it. Glycerin is a product that is made when the saponification process happens. What you are doing is taking a tri-glyceride fat, liberating the glycerin backbone and turning the fatty acids into soap, or surfactant. The soap part cleans and the glycerin (glycerol, same compound different name) is healthy for your skin. Goat milk has added vitamins, nutrients and exfoliating properties then strait glycerin soap.
How did you make your kefir? Much like yogurt but a different culture. It's like a drinkable yogurt if you have never had it.
Saponification. What happens when you screw up making biodiesel. Not screw it up but have the right (or the wrong, in this case) kind of fatty acids in there. On a side note, my master’s thesis is on the production of biodiesel.
Is the process difficult? And how much time does it take for it to be made? Also, is it actually sold a lot? The process isn't inherently difficult but there is a lot of little things that effect the quality of the finished soap. I use a basic cold process ( you can Google it) but have made a lot of tweeks from years of making it with my mom and now my better understanding of the chemical process (saponification) of making soap.
A usually make two batches at a time and it takes me about 4 hours.
Ya there is a lot of this stuff out there. I might be biased but I think I make a very good product. I used to make it and give it out as Christmas presents to people I know but then they wanted to start buying off me and it has grown from there.
I think I make a very good product. From now on i picture you as Heisenberg! Shhh, you'll blow my cover. Instead of a laundry above me I have this.
How much for goat milk meth? About...tree fidy'
What makes goats milk worth making soap out of? how is it different than normal soap? Great question. Goat milk has a lot of moisturizing qualities that really help out your skin. It is a natural product that doesn't require special chemicals to help it adsorb into your skin like a lot of commercial lotions have. It has a lot of vitamin A that helps repair damaged skin. There are also a lot of minerals in there too, like selenium, that have moisturizing qualities.
Is it better than human fat? im sorry this has just been a build up to a fighclub joke... but i am glad i learned something. if i see goats milk soap at a farmers market (is that where you sell it?) i will try some. To clear this up now you can't make soap from human fat, well good soap. If animal fat is used it has to be tallow. Tallow is a hard fat from around the kidneys of cows. As a kid we used this but it make for a very heavy bar of soap that doesn't lather well. Now I only use olive, coconut and other plant based oils.
Like i said, im sorry for the dumb fightclub joke. its the 4th and im kinda drunk. that being said, how would i find home made soaps? farmers market? i really would try them. You can find them there, i would suggest going to my website, Link to www.sageandlinneasoap.com , but I might be biased.
I like the site. might i suggest adding the phrase "I make and sell soap" to it. REAL RESPONSE HERE i have hard water, is artisan soap any different in those conditions? It isn't. If you use a water softener it will feel like you are a little slippery but that is because the soap isn't leaving behind a residue you are used too with commercial soaps.
I am using a softener. and i always feel slimy. brb ordering soap. thanks for putting up with the dumb fightclub jokes. If you feel slimy after you are dry that is no good. If you are wet that is a product of the salt that replaces your hard water (calcium and magnesium) pulling the glycerol out of the soap. As in fight club, you can pull glycerol out of the soap by adding salt. Glycerol is a good thing for your skin, but most of the glycerol that gets made in the soap making process gets pulled out of the finished product in large companies as it can be sold for a much high price for other industrial uses.
At what age did you begin learning to make the soap? At what age did you stop? What made you decide to go back to it? I started when I was around 14. I remember boiling down tallow (fat) on the front porch on Saturdays, not fun. I did that for quite a few years than didn't get back into it tell I was about 23. I have been making it for myself, family and friends for the last 5 years and now in the last year looking to grow this into something I can at least help support myself as I finish my Master's degree.
I'm curious, what's your master's degree in? Chemical Engineering
I had a goat named Cheerios as a kid (no pun intended... although, it's a good one). Goats are the best. Did you always have goats? What is your favorite goats name? Ya I grew up with a ton of goats. I had kept one as a pet when I was a kid and named him Tumnus from the lion the witch and the wardrobe. I liked to push on his head and then he would chase me and head but me. It was fun until he got to be a big guy and just pounce on me.
How many goats do you have, how much milk do you get from them, and how much soap does that translate into? Also, is this kind of thing worth the time and effort if you were just supplying your own household, or is it pretty much commercial or nothing? Thanks - this is so interesting! Owning a goat to just to supply my own home in soap is not worth it. They are like any animal and take a lot of up keep. My mother keeps the goat at the moment as I am in school but if this grows I will be getting my own. I can get about a gallon a day per goat. This translates into a lot of soap so we drink it too.
How do you go around selling it? On the streets or is it demanded by pharmacies and stores? I have a few local stores I go to, word of mouth is the biggest way so far, but I am looking to expand into a real business not just a hobby. Now I am looking to break into the internet market.
What kind of stores do you approach? Which ones have the best sales? I am building a relationship with a chiropractor and looking to get into his office. I also live in a tourist town so there are a lot of places that sell locally made things. I'm not in a store now but as a kid the best stores my Mom sold out of were feed stores. We were in a small Texas town though so feed stores were the place to go for soap I guess.
Have you tried etsy yet? I like your goat logo. Have you looked into the hand rafters soap and cosmetic guild? That may help you too. Ya I am on etsy too. I will have to look into the guild think, thanks!
I'm about to move to a small, Texas tourist town and before I read this comment of yours I was thinking "Hey, I could probably do this where I am moving to". Now I am worried that I am moving to the same town and would be stepping on your toes. No worries! I am a free economics kind of guy and if you put me out of business I shouldn't be in business.
In beach towns along the Florida coast, there is sample soap in bathrooms in restaurants that have a sign by it saying where someone can go to purchase it if they like the soap. Just a thought for expanding your market (I want royalties if this works) Taking down your user name and will mail the stacks of cash to you.
DOCTORS are warning people with skin conditions not to use beauty products containing food ingredients after a Melbourne woman almost died following her use of a goat’s milk moisturiser. Link to www.heraldsun.com.au. Wow this is the first time I have seen this. It is hard to believe this happened with a normal use of a goat milk product. I’m not a doctor but I'll have to look into this more as it is the first time I have seen any kind of allergy to goats milk like this in the 15 or so years I have been working with goat milk products.
Can i eat it? You can, but it wouldn't be good. Link to cheddarbay.com
Where do you get your goats milk from? Goats! I ussaly get it from the family farm but m our sourceing at the moment. Just have to know who to talk to.
I tried to do this as challenge but was put off with using lye, would you suggest trying it with a small batch or is the cost not effective? I make them in small batches. You have to use lye, no way around that. I am well trained in handeling harsh chemicals but you do have to be very careful!
Do you use lye? When I make my soap i use lye and everyone always freeks out about it. If you can find another way to make it, you would be rich! It, or another equalally strong base, is the only way to make soap.
Do you know what a duvet is? Yes, I am under one right now. Getting them in there cover is the worst part about laundry day.
Which goat breeds produce the best milk for soap? What about the best for drinking or cheeses? Edit-grammar. I would say nubian. They give less milk but it has a much better butterfat content and tastes way better.
Would you be kind enough to share a recipe ? :( sorry no, It is leagly my mothers and I can't share it with anyone out side of the family.
Do you think the final product of a CP goat milk soap is superior to one made with a goat milk melt and pour base? If so, why? Also, do you or would you consider making and selling a melt and pour base? I have never used a melt and pour base myself but I know with my process you can't re-melt it and not have some degradation in the quality.
When will you have more blood orange goat soap? I have it made allready but it will be 3 weeks before it is cured enough to sell.
Does it have that goaty smell or taste? No! This is one thing I can not stand and don't taste it, it's soap.
I WANT TO BUY ALL YOUR BARS. I'm curious, I get really bad, painful acne on my back sometimes. How would goats milk soap affect this? It should do wonders. It helps to remove old oils from your skin and mosturize too so you don't get all dryed out.
Have you ever been surprised by someone's reason for preferring your soap? I had a guy tell me it revolutionized his shower experience, that was pretty cool.
Bob Saget and Steve Buscemi. Who would win in a fight? Bob is a bad ass but I think Steve would win from strait wileness.
Is it possible to make soap out of human boob milk? I’m sure it is possible, but not very marketable, in my opinion.
Would you rather fight 100 soap-sized goats or 1 goat-sized soap? Edit: The goat-sized soap is very heavy and can slide at your shins inflicting damage. 100 soap-sized goats. I feel like I could take a tremors II aprove and blat them all with some high rate firepower.
Have you tried accepting crypto currencies? I know the shibes over at /dogecoin usually go crazy whenever a smaller business shows up and wants to accept doge! I haven't, but it would be cool. Just have to collect a ton and hold on to them for when they go big like Bitcoins...
Do you wanna build a snowman... using goat's milk? No, Frozen goats milk looks yellow and like pee ice...
Do you use your own soap? Only thing I have used scence I was a kid.
Are you saying that you've actually made pee ice before? Well, I have peed on snow...
Can we buy the soap online? You can! Link to www.sageandlinneasoap.com
Can goat milk be used to make other products (not edible)? And would you consider expanding your business to other products using goat milk? I am, loations and other specialty soaps such as shaveing and dog soaps.
What's your favorite kind of sandwich? Potbelly's Mediterranean with chicken.
This one? Ya but you got to throw chicken on it, non of that vegetarian stuff.
What do you think of Canus brand goats milk soap? Their scented version is way too strong for me, but they are what got me hooked with their unscented. Once I run out of my last bulk purchase from Amazon I will have to look your up! I have never used their stuff. I scent my soaps with essential oils so in the shower it gives a wonderful aroma that isn't overpowering.
Do you take requests for scents? After checking your site, I notice that you don't yet have a sweet floral one. I am working that way but it is difficult to do with essential oils.
It says that your shipping to Australia would be $50 dollars. Is that, um, right? I was ready to buy a bar until I saw that I'd be paying $55.50. Shipping for up to 4 bars should only be 18. then up to 8 is 26... i'll look into it.
No shipping to Canada :( will that ever be available eh? Messeage me and I'll see what I can do.
Okay, I love goat milk soap. It is the only soap that doesn't make me break out. I have a lot of allergies, though. Can we get an ingredient list for your soaps, either here or on the website? Ya ill look at incorperating that into my website here in the next few days. Thanks for the suggestion!
I wanted to buy your soap, but it seems you don't ship to Canada. Do you know if you will soon? Privet message me and we'll get something worked out.
Do you have an etsy store? Please say yes. Yes, sageandlinneasoaps.
Do you plan on allowing shipping international outside the USA such as Canada, Europe, etc? Yes, I just poste those shipping options.
I've been really interested in the idea of making soap for a while. What does the process entail? Also, keep doing what you're doing! I'd love to order some once your website's up and running. :) It is up and running! Link to www.sageandlinneasoap.com Thank you for your support.
Are your soaps made with coconut products? I have an severe allergy and have a really hard time finding soaps without coconut derivatives. Yes they are :( I'm sorry.
Have you thought about mentioning that you make BEER SCENTED SOAP as part of your pitch ? I mean, I know its Hops, but still BEER SCENTED SOAP :) That is one of the fun ones!
Would you consider having a soap battle (to the death) with my cousin? He too is a goat milk soaper. www.oldfactorysoap.com. Bring it!
Your website only seemed to sell to the US how would I go about getting say one of each kind to New South Wales, Australia? I buy some from the local chemist (drug store/pharamcy in US) here. But yours seems to look better and come in more scents. Email me on the site and we can work out shipping.
Last updated: 2014-07-09 08:17 UTC
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Översyn handelsplattform - IQ Option

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