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Q2 2020 earnings thread

Didn’t see one posted yet so let this be the megathread that cliff can sticky or whatever. I’ll update this as info comes in and maybe live blog the call if I make it to my computer in time
Webcast info can be found at:
https://ir.tesla.com/events/event-details/tesla-inc-q2-2020-financial-results-and-qa-webcast
The call starts at 2:30pm PDT
Q2 report:
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/f41f4254-f1cc-4929-a0b6-6623b00475a6
Call live blog (times in PDT):
2:30: "Call starting shortly"
2:32: Tesla director of investor relations
2:33: Elon opening remarks. Good job to the Tesla team. 4th consecutive profitable quarter. Auto industry is down, but Tesla is up.
Next gigafactory is just north of Austin, Texas (15 min from downtown Austin) on the Colorado river. "Boardwalk" and "ecological paradise." Cyber truck, Semi, and 3&y for eastern half of North America. Fremont will do S&X for worldwide and 3&Y for western half of NA. Shout out to Tulsa.
Tesla solar is the cheapest in the US. 30% cheaper than US average. $1.49/w.
New Tesla Model S has a range over 400 miles.
2:39: FSD crap
2:40: Thank you Tesla team again for a full year of profitability. 3 new factories within the next year. "So much to be excited about"!
"Never been more excited for the future of Tesla"
2:42: CFO
Saved costs by laying employees off
Continue reducing costs
$48M FSD recognized
Megapack is profitable
Questions from institutional investors:
Q: *missed the first question, sorry*
Q: Vision for the future
A: FSD on all vehicles. Biggest value increase of any company.
Q: AP. Upcoming self driving milestones
A: Major milestone is transition from "2.5D" (pictures) to "4D" (video) environment. Later this year. Big improvement to process video instead of pictures for FSD... Better than humans. "Orders of magnitude reliability" better. Elon thinks computers are smart.
Q: Alien Dreadnought
A: Putting more work into manufacturing engineering to make the machine that makes the machine. GF1 is alien dreadnought version 0.5. Working towards 1.0. GF Shanghai makes better cars than Fremont. Berlin Model Y will look the same but have more advanced architecture. Integrating design and manufacturing. Vertical integration is important. Increasing CapEx efficiency. "Tesla loves manufacturing!"
Q: How many can Tesla produce in Texas
A: "Right now, 0. Long term, a lot."
Retail:
Q: Tesla Energy
A: Long term Tesla Energy will be same size as Tesla Automotive. Solar, wind, and batteries. Grid scale storage will expand. Auto-bidder is autopilot for battery storage; Like high frequency trading. Makes sure the battery is working correctly and grid satisfied. Main thing about Tesla is cell production at an affordable price (Tesla doesn't manufacture cells though? - me). "Talk more about this at battery day."
Q: Tesla Semi production plans
A: Production will start next year. First few units will be used by Tesla. Mainly between Fremont and Reno/Sparks. Some early units will go to some early adopters. Semi will be awesome. Semi will use nickel based cells. Passenger vehicles will use iron based cells; range of maybe 300 miles in the Chinese market. Use very little cobalt in cells already.
Q: Why is Tesla removing the standard range vehicles
A: "Mining companies, please mine more nickel at high volume." Tesla will sign a long term contract. New normal for range will be ~300 miles.
Q: What is the hold up of Tesla insurance outside of California
A: "Joking before call about quarterly insurance question." "Version 0.9" in California. Use the data captured in the car to assess probability of crash and use that for premium. Take the California product and use it in other states or make other states better; going with the latter. Handful of states by the end of the year. Regulatory approval will be needed. Version 2, Version 3, etc. as they go forward. Car will let you know to "drive better if you want a lower premium." Elon: "#1 thing to take from this call is that Tesla is hiring ... especially insurance." Tesla insurance will be provided for Tesla Network car sharing; not required.
Investors on the line:
Q: Gross margin of vehicles different between factories.
A: GM increased in China. Model Y was profitable in first quarter of production. Model Y is more expensive than Model 3 to produce, but will become closer to the same. Locally sourcing components is "literally rising 5%-10% price improvement per month." Suppliers are eager to support Berlin GF.
Q: Is Tesla aiming for industry leading gross margin. EV credits
A: "We don't run the business to rely on regulatory credits." Revenue from FSD. OpEx continues to come down.
I have to go, so this is it for the call live blogging
submitted by gwoz8881 to RealTesla [link] [comments]

Your Pre Market Brief for 07/14/2020

Pre Market Brief for Tuesday July 14th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Updated as of 3:56 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Tuesday 07/13/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Tuesday July 14th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are in EST)
News Heading into Tuesday July 14th 2020:
NOTE: I USUALLY POST MANY OF THE MOST PROMISING, DRAMATIC, OR BAD NEWS OVERNIGHT STORIES THAT ARE LIKELY IMPORTANT TO THE MEMBERS OF THIS SUB AT THE TOP OF THIS LIST. PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH! THE TIME STAMPS ON THESE MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB. YESTERDAY’S (EQ) SUCCESS WAS A VERY RARE OCCURRENCE.
Upcoming Earnings:
Commodities:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Your Pre-Market Brief for 08/20/2020

Your Pre Market Brief for Thursday August 20th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Published 3:15 AM EST / Updated as of 4:00 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Tuesday 08/19/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Thursday August 20th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are Eastern)
JOBLESS CLAIMS TODAY!
News Heading into Thursday August 20th 2020
NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH. THE TIME STAMPS ON THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB. THE CREATOR OF THIS THREAD COMPILED THE FOLLOWING IN A QUICK MANNER AND DOES NOT ATTEST TO THE VERACITY OF THE INFORMATION BELOW. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR VETTING YOUR OWN SOURCES AND DOING YOUR OWN DD.
Note: Seeking A url's and Reddit do not get along.
Upcoming Earnings:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of these headlines before trading.
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Your Pre Market Brief for 07/16/2020

Pre Market Brief for Thursday July 16th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Updated as of 4:45 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Wednesday 07/15/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Thursday July 16th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are in EST)
(JOBLESS CLAIMS TODAY)
News Heading into Thursday July 16th 2020:
NOTE: I USUALLY (TRY TO) POST MANY OF THE MOST PROMISING, DRAMATIC, OR BAD NEWS OVERNIGHT STORIES THAT ARE LIKELY IMPORTANT TO THE MEMBERS OF THIS SUB AT THE TOP OF THIS LIST. PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH! THE TIME STAMPS ON THESE MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB.
Upcoming Earnings:
Commodities:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020

Good Saturday afternoon to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020.

Fragile economic recovery faces first big test with June jobs report in the week ahead - (Source)

The second half of 2020 is nearly here, and now it’s up to the economy to prove that the stock market was right about a sharp comeback in growth.
The first big test will be the June jobs report, out on Thursday instead of its usual Friday release due to the July 4 holiday. According to Refinitiv, economists expect 3 million jobs were created, after May’s surprise gain of 2.5 million payrolls beat forecasts by a whopping 10 million jobs.
“If it’s stronger, it will suggest that the improvement is quicker, and that’s kind of what we saw in May with better retail sales, confidence was coming back a little and auto sales were better,” said Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets.
The second quarter winds down in the week ahead as investors are hopeful about the recovery but warily eyeing rising cases of Covid-19 in a number of states.
Stocks were lower for the week, as markets reacted to rising cases in Texas, Florida and other states. Investors worry about the threat to the economic rebound as those states move to curb some activities. The S&P 500 is up more than 16% so far for the second quarter, and it is down nearly 7% for the year. Friday’s losses wiped out the last of the index’s June gains.
“I think the stock market is looking beyond the valley. It is expecting a V-shaped economic recovery and a solid 2021 earnings picture,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. He expects large-cap company earnings to be up 30% next year, and small-cap profits to bounce back by 140%.
“I think the second half needs to be a ‘show me’ period, proving that our optimism was justified, and we’ll need to see continued improvement in the economic data, and I think we need to see upward revisions to earnings estimates,” Stovall said.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said she expects the recovery will not be as smooth as some expect, particularly considering the resurgence of virus outbreaks in sunbelt states and California.
“Now as I watch what’s happening I think it’s more likely to be rolling Ws,” rather than a V, she said. “It’s not just predicated on a second wave. I’m not sure we ever exited the first wave.”
Even without actual state shutdowns, the virus could slow economic activity. “That doesn’t mean businesses won’t shut themselves down, or consumers won’t back down more,” she said.

Election ahead

In the second half of the year, the market should turn its attention to the election, but Sonders does not expect much reaction to it until after Labor Day. RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 10 percentage points, and the odds of a Democratic sweep have been rising.
Biden has said he would raise corporate taxes, and some strategists say a sweep would be bad for business, due to increased regulation and higher taxes. Trump is expected to continue using tariffs, which unsettles the market, though both candidates are expected to take a tough stance on China.
“If it looks like the Senate stays Republican than there’s less to worry about in terms of policy changes,” Sonders said. “I don’t think it’s ever as binary as some people think.”
Stovall said a quick study shows that in the four presidential election years back to 1960, where the first quarter was negative, and the second quarter positive, stocks made gains in the second half.
Those were 1960 when John Kennedy took office, 1968, when Richard Nixon won; 1980 when Ronald Reagan’s was elected to his first term; and 1992, the first win by Bill Clinton. Coincidentally, in all of those years, the opposing party gained control of the White House.

Stimulus

The stocks market’s strong second-quarter showing came after the Fed and Congress moved quickly to inject the economy with trillions in stimulus. That unlocked credit markets and triggered a stampede by companies to restructure or issue debt. About $2 trillion in fiscal spending was aimed at consumers and businesses, who were in sudden need of cash after the abrupt shutdown of the economy.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both testify before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday on the response to the virus. That will be important as markets look ahead to another fiscal package from Congress this summer, which is expected to provide aid to states and local governments; extend some enhanced benefits for unemployment, and provide more support for businesses.
“So much of it is still so fluid. There are a bunch of fiscal items that are rolling off. There’s talk about another fiscal stimulus payment like they did last time with a $1,200 check,” said Cummins.
Strategists expect Congress to bicker about the size and content of the stimulus package but ultimately come to an agreement before enhanced unemployment benefits run out at the end of July. Cummins said state budgets begin a new year July 1, and states with a critical need for funds may have to start letting workers go, as they cut expenses.
The Trump administration has indicated the jobs report Thursday could help shape the fiscal package, depending on what it shows. The federal supplement to state unemployment benefits has been $600 a week, but there is opposition to extending that, and strategists expect it to be at least cut in half.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 12.2% from 13.3% in May. Cummins said he had expected 7.2 million jobs, well above the consensus, and an unemployment rate of 11.8%.
As of last week, nearly 20 million people were collecting state unemployment benefits, and millions more were collecting under a federal pandemic aid program.
“The magnitude here and whether it’s 3 million or 7 million is kind of hard to handicap to begin with,” Cummins said. Economists have preferred to look at unemployment claims as a better real time read of employment, but they now say those numbers could be impacted by slow reporting or double filing.
“There’s no clarity on how you define the unemployed in the Covid 19 environment,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “If there’s 30 million people receiving insurance, unemployment should be above 20%.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

When Will The Economy Recover?

The economy is moving in the right direction, as many economic data points are coming in substantially better than what the economists expected. From May job gains coming in more than 10 million higher than expected and retail sales soaring a record 18%, how quickly the economy is bouncing back has surprised nearly everyone.
“As good as the recent economic data has been, we want to make it clear, it could still take years for the economy to fully come back,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Think of it like building a house. You get all the big stuff done early, then some of the small things take so much longer to finish; I’m looking at you crown molding.”
Here’s the hard truth; it might take years for all of the jobs that were lost to fully recover. In fact, during the 10 recessions since 1950, it took an average of 30 months for lost jobs to finally come back. As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, recoveries have taken much longer lately. In fact, it took four years for the jobs lost during the tech bubble recession of the early 2000s to come back and more than six years for all the jobs lost to come back after the Great Recession. Given many more jobs were lost during this recession, it could takes many years before all of them indeed come back.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The economy is going the right direction, and if there is no major second wave outbreak it could surprise to the upside. Importantly, this economic recovery will still be a long and bumpy road.

Nasdaq - Russell Spread Pulling the Rubber Band Tight

The Nasdaq has been outperforming every other US-based equity index over the last year, and nowhere has the disparity been wider than with small caps. The chart below compares the performance of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 over the last 12 months. While the performance disparity is wide now, through last summer, the two indices were tracking each other nearly step for step. Then last fall, the Nasdaq started to steadily pull ahead before really separating itself in the bounce off the March lows. Just to illustrate how wide the gap between the two indices has become, over the last six months, the Nasdaq is up 11.9% compared to a decline of 15.8% for the Russell 2000. That's wide!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In order to put the recent performance disparity between the two indices into perspective, the chart below shows the rolling six-month performance spread between the two indices going back to 1980. With a current spread of 27.7 percentage points, the gap between the two indices hasn't been this wide since the days of the dot-com boom. Back in February 2000, the spread between the two indices widened out to more than 50 percentage points. Not only was that period extreme, but ten months before that extreme reading, the spread also widened out to more than 51 percentage points. The current spread is wide, but with two separate periods in 1999 and 2000 where the performance gap between the two indices was nearly double the current level, that was a period where the Nasdaq REALLY outperformed small caps.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
To illustrate the magnitude of the Nasdaq's outperformance over the Russell 2000 from late 1998 through early 2000, the chart below shows the performance of the two indices beginning in October 1998. From that point right on through March of 2000 when the Nasdaq peaked, the Nasdaq rallied more than 200% compared to the Russell 2000 which was up a relatively meager 64%. In any other environment, a 64% gain in less than a year and a half would be excellent, but when it was under the shadow of the surging Nasdaq, it seemed like a pittance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Share Price Performance

The US equity market made its most recent peak on June 8th. From the March 23rd low through June 8th, the average stock in the large-cap Russell 1,000 was up more than 65%! Since June 8th, the average stock in the index is down more than 11%. Below we have broken the index into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on simple share price as of June 8th. Decile 1 (marked "Highest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the highest share prices. Decile 10 (marked "Lowest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the lowest share prices. As shown, the highest priced decile of stocks are down an average of just 4.8% since June 8th, while the lowest priced decile of stocks are down an average of 21.5%. It's pretty remarkable how performance gets weaker and weaker the lower the share price gets.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq 2% Pullbacks From Record Highs

It's hard to believe that sentiment can change so fast in the market that one day investors and traders are bidding up stocks to record highs, but then the next day sell them so much that it takes the market down over 2%. That's exactly what happened not only in the last two days but also two weeks ago. While the 5% pullback from a record high back on June 10th took the Nasdaq back below its February high, this time around, the Nasdaq has been able to hold above those February highs.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the entire history of the Nasdaq, there have only been 12 periods prior to this week where the Nasdaq closed at an all-time high on one day but dropped more than 2% the next day. Those occurrences are highlighted in the table below along with the index's performance over the following week, month, three months, six months, and one year. We have also highlighted each occurrence that followed a prior one by less than three months in gray. What immediately stands out in the table is how much gray shading there is. In other words, these types of events tend to happen in bunches, and if you count the original occurrence in each of the bunches, the only two occurrences that didn't come within three months of another occurrence (either before or after) were July 1986 and May 2017.
In terms of market performance following prior occurrences, the Nasdaq's average and median returns were generally below average, but there is a pretty big caveat. While the average one-year performance was a gain of 1.0% and a decline of 23.6% on a median basis, the six occurrences that came between December 1999 and March 2000 all essentially cover the same period (which was very bad) and skew the results. Likewise, the three occurrences in the two-month stretch from late November 1998 through January 1999 where the Nasdaq saw strong gains also involves a degree of double-counting. As a result of these performances at either end of the extreme, it's hard to draw any trends from the prior occurrences except to say that they are typically followed by big moves in either direction. The only time the Nasdaq wasn't either 20% higher or lower one year later was in 1986.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Christmas in July: NASDAQ’s Mid-Year Rally

In the mid-1980s the market began to evolve into a tech-driven market and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. Over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 27 of the past 35 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. This year the rally may have begun a day early, today and could last until on or around July 14.
After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last ten years, up nine times with a single mild 0.1% loss in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a solid 4.6% during the 12-day span.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Tech Historically Leads Market Higher Until Q3 of Election Years

As of yesterday’s close DJIA was down 8.8% year-to-date. S&P 500 was down 3.5% and NASDAQ was up 12.1%. Compared to the typical election year, DJIA and S&P 500 are below historical average performance while NASDAQ is above average. However this year has not been a typical election year. Due to the covid-19, the market suffered the damage of the shortest bear market on record and a new bull market all before the first half of the year has come to an end.
In the surrounding Seasonal Patten Charts of DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, we compare 2020 (as of yesterday’s close) to All Years and Election Years. This year’s performance has been plotted on the right vertical axis in each chart. This year certainly has been unlike any other however some notable observations can be made. For DJIA and S&P 500, January, February and approximately half of March have historically been weak, on average, in election years. This year the bear market ended on March 23. Following those past weak starts, DJIA and S&P 500 historically enjoyed strength lasting into September before experiencing any significant pullback followed by a nice yearend rally. NASDAQ’s election year pattern differs somewhat with six fewer years of data, but it does hint to a possible late Q3 peak.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 26th, 2020

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6.28.20

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $MU
  • $GIS
  • $FDX
  • $CAG
  • $STZ
  • $CPRI
  • $XYF
  • $AYI
  • $MEI
  • $UNF
  • $CDMO
  • $SCHN
  • $LNN
  • $CULP
  • $XELA
  • $KFY
  • $RTIX
  • $JRSH
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 4 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.29.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Monday 6.29.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.30.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.30.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 7.1.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 7.1.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Thursday 7.2.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 7.2.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Friday 7.3.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Friday 7.3.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Micron Technology, Inc. $48.49

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, June 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $5.27 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.40 to $0.70 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 29.00% with revenue increasing by 10.07%. Short interest has increased by 7.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.9% below its 200 day moving average of $48.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 46,037 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $59.21

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $4.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.30% with revenue increasing by 17.50%. Short interest has decreased by 9.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.8% above its 200 day moving average of $54.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,573 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

FedEx Corp. $130.08

FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.42 per share on revenue of $16.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.65 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 71.66% with revenue decreasing by 8.41%. Short interest has increased by 10.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 43.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $140.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,768 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Conagra Brands, Inc. $32.64

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $3.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 83.33% with revenue increasing by 23.99%. Short interest has decreased by 38.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.4% above its 200 day moving average of $30.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,239 contracts of the $29.00 put expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Constellation Brands, Inc. $168.99

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.91 per share on revenue of $1.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.57% with revenue decreasing by 13.69%. Short interest has increased by 20.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.2% below its 200 day moving average of $178.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 888 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Capri Holdings Limited $14.37

Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $1.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.68 to $0.73 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 49.21% with revenue decreasing by 12.20%. Short interest has increased by 35.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 56.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 44.0% below its 200 day moving average of $25.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 11,042 contracts of the $17.50 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

X Financial $0.92

X Financial (XYF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 55.00% with revenue increasing by 763.52%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.7% below its 200 day moving average of $1.47. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Acuity Brands, Inc. $84.45

Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:40 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $809.25 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 51.90% with revenue decreasing by 14.60%. Short interest has increased by 48.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.4% below its 200 day moving average of $110.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Methode Electronics, Inc. $30.02

Methode Electronics, Inc. (MEI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $211.39 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.19% with revenue decreasing by 20.53%. Short interest has increased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.0% below its 200 day moving average of $32.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

UniFirst Corporation $170.54

UniFirst Corporation (UNF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.17 per share on revenue of $378.28 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.44% with revenue decreasing by 16.63%. Short interest has decreased by 2.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% below its 200 day moving average of $186.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Top 10 Nikola Naysayer's Baseless Arguments. Try harder, folks.

EDIT: There are now 19 items on this list. Last updated on Sep 30, 2020.
If you’re coming from subs that are heavily anti-Nikola such as wallstreetbets and RealNikola, I hope folks there haven’t closed your mind to the point you can’t see facts when they’re presented to you. The following is meant to address baseless claims so that we can move onto legitimate concerns and questions about Nikola Corporation.
Now be prepared for some serious due diligence (DD). This will take awhile...
Before you read the items below, I suggest first watching the following videos: - Real Engineering Video (Sep 5, 2020—a great summary of Nikola’s business model) - Tesla Joy Video (Aug 24, 2020) - Tesla Daily Video (Jun 2, 2020) - TESLA Charts Podcast (Jul 19, 2020) - Autoline Network Video (Jun 11, 2020) - This Week In Startups Video (Jul 31, 2020)
1) They ripped off Tesla's name!
FACT CHECK: What does this even mean? So...don't invest or at least take a look at a company given their name? Are you telling me that the inventor Nikola Tesla licensed his name to Elon Musk? That would be a no. Did Tesla Inc. trademark Nikola? Also a hard no. The only thing this tells me is that two clean energy companies honored a great inventor...a father of modern energy. I made this baseless claim #1 on this list since there are way too many people who just can't get over the name and refuses to took deeper, or if they do look deeper, they're already blinded by hate/disgust and can't look at the company objectively.
Fun Fact: See who truly honors the great Nikola Tesla (click on the following names). Is it Tesla’s Elon Musk or Nikola founder Trevor Milton?
2) They're diluting their shares with the merger!
FACT CHECK: Nikola Motor Co. and VectoIQ are conducting a reverse merger, which will come to a shareholder vote on June 2, 2020. If you don't know what a reverse merger is, click here. VTIQ's 29.6M shares will be combined with the 320.7M private shares of existing Nikola Motor Co. Another 52.5M shares will come from VectoIQ's PIPE (see #16 below as well for those who are worried PIPE investors are about to sell their shares). VTIQ will convert to $NKLA 1:1 meaning whatever price per share VTIQ is at pre-merger will be the same price it will be post-merger. Furthermore, existing Nikola private shareholders (not VTIQ shareholders) will be under a lock up period for 6 months where they are barred from selling their shares. I wouldn't be concerned with dilution until the lock up is lifted, but even then, Nikola World 2020 would have revealed major progress with the company that I'm sure most investors will want to hold tight for the long. Trevor Milton on dilution. Read the SEC filed S-4 to learn more about the merger.
Post-Merger Edit: No signs of dilution. NKLA continues to trade above its IPO price despite all the PIPE, warrants, and employee stock options entering the market. The only remaining shares left are the 2M (max) that the Diesel Brother can earn for Badger sales.
3) They sued Tesla...a bunch of amateurs!
FACT CHECK: Here's a video of an unbiased deep dive onto the patent lawsuit, which btw, Nikola is winning and winning at the highest patent court in the country. If another company infringed on Tesla’s patents, would that be okay?
4) Trevor Milton is the CEO.
FACT CHECK: Part of the agreement on the merger was for Trevor Milton to lose some shares to own up to 40% of the company. The agreement also elevated him to Executive Chairman from CEO so he wouldn’t have to run the day-to-day operations of the company and instead focus on leading the board of directors and the strategic direction of the company. All in all, institutional investors wanted to limit Trevor’s control over the company.
The CEO of Nikola is Mark Russell who has no social media presence and rarely seen, as it should be for the guy running the show. When Mark does speak, it's clear that he's the more calculated and reserved executive of the company. Comparatively, Trevor is a visionary. Those who follow him closely know he tends to speak in the future. As the Chairman of the company, he is fulfilling his job in pointing the Corporation's strategic direction.
Edit 1: A modification has been made to Trevor Milton’s lock-up clause.
Edit 2: Trevor Milton dumped 6 Million of his own shares! See...he doesn't even want the stock!
Fact Check: On Aug 26, 2020, Trevor announced that he would GIVE 6 million of his shares to the first 50 employees of Nikola. He then later announced that he would give the other 350 of his employees a total of 1 million of his own shares. Nikola haters love to spin the truth. They're so blinded by hate and disgust for Trevor and Nikola that anything he does is processed negatively.
Edit 3: Trevor Milton is no longer CEO or Executive Chairman as he stepped aside following sexual assault allegations.
5) Trevor Milton started two companies that went bankrupt! He’s even a college dropout!
FACT CHECK: Now we're getting into the SPIN ZONE! Get the full dose of truth in this Forbes article. You’ll find that Trevor actually started two businesses that he sold for millions of dollars.
For whatever reason, some people assume great entrepreneurs have been 100% successful in their endeavors. They couldn’t be more further from the truth.
To those who tease Trevor for being a college dropout, see this list of successful business leaders who also dropped out of college.
6) Hydrogen tech is unproven! Nikola is just vaporware!
FACT CHECK: It seems you are ill-informed of the industry. Here's hydrogen fuel cell tech use in South Korea, in California, in Germany, and in the United Kingdom, to name a few...oh, and there's Nikola's H2 fueling station at their Phoenix, Arizona HQ.
Do these videos of the Nikola Two look like vaporware to you?
  1. Video 1
  2. Video 2 The Nikola Two beer delivery with Ab inBev.
  3. Video 3 Nikola Analyst Day video (start at the 11:28 min mark)
  4. Video 4
  5. Video 5 The Nikola Two on the road.
  6. Video 6 Raw video of the Nikola Two fuel cell tech in action. Check this out to look under the hood.
  7. Video 7. The Nikola Two performing a break test.
  8. Video 8 Trevor Milton showing the Nikola Two Powertrain
To learn more about hydrogen, read this peer-reviewed study on the 20 Hydrogen Myths.
Furthermore, if you go through the Hydrogen FCEV Technology and Hydrogen Technology post flairs in this sub, you’ll find other companies vouching for FCEV tech as well to include Shell, Hyundai, BMW, Bosch, Ballard, Jaguar Land Rover, Daimler, Toyota, and Hyzon...I’m sure I’m missing others. What are all these companies missing that you see? Is it because Elon Musk said hydrogen is "fool cell"? They all must be trying to fool us I guess.
7) My shares will be $10 post-merger!
FACT CHECK: VTIQ will convert to NKLA 1:1 meaning whatever price per share VTIQ is at merger, will be the same price it will be post-merger.
Post-Merger Edit: We did not see NKLA start at $10. In fact, on Jun 4, 2020 listing day, NKLA opened at $37.55.
8) They took PPP money meant for small businesses. How dare they do that?!
FACT CHECK: Before Nikola received close to $1B from the VectoIQ merger, the company was strapped in cash and had over 300 employees and their families to care for during COVID-19. They eventually paid tax payers back as you'll hear in this clip where Trevor sets the record straight with CNBC.
9) I don't understand warrants, so this company is a fraud!
FACT CHECK: If you don't understand warrants (NKLAW), either get smart or just buy NKLA common shares. See this reference and my thoughts on NKLAW.
10) They're asking me if I want to redeem my VTIQ shares for $10.36 when I bought it at $25. This is 100% a scam!
FACT CHECK: VTIQ shareholders received messages on whether to opt into redeeming their shares by May 29, 2020. If they did, they would only receive $10.38. No one in their right mind would want to do that if the price of VTIQ is currently way over that price. Not only does this hurt you, it also hurts Nikola Corp as you would be taking cash from the merger. Read this Article. Bottom line, if you receive a message asking if you want to redeem your VTIQ shares, don’t do it. This is an option that they made available, but VectoIQ and Nikola Corp. highly suggests against redeeming your VTIQ shares.
11) Their revenue projections are fake! Anyone can preorder with $0 money down!
FACT CHECK: This article explains why preorders are $0.00. Also, read this Tweet from Trevor Milton. Moreover, go to pg. 14 on this SEC filing. Notice how the vast majority of the preorders are from legitimate institutional fleets. See this Tweet as well.
Note that Nikola has stopped taking orders for their FCEV semis since Fall 2019. They’re only taking orders for BEV semis, Badgers, NZTs, and WAVs. The $10B 14,602 preorder semis where for those FCEVs. Trolls can’t add to that number and are just wasting their time especially since Nikola runs scripts to filter out their submissions.
12) No one wanted to invest in Nikola! That's why they went public...to take your money instead! Nikola is SCAM!
FACT CHECK: Go to Pg. 10 on the prospectus. You'll find over $500M in funding from several companies prior to the merger with VectoIQ. Post-merger, Nikola’s institutional investors include Bosch (German), Hanwha (S. Korean; 6.13% ownership), CNH Industrial/Iveco (Italian; 7.11% ownership), Nel Hydrogen (Norwegian), Fidelity Management and Research Company, Inclusive Capital Spring Fund (~5.6% ownership), Black Rock, and P. Schoenfeld Asset Management LP. To doubters, what do you see that these companies fail to see? These companies fully vetted Nikola before investing in them. Nikola even received a $1.7M grant from the U.S. Department of Energy. Prior to the merger, VectoIQ’s CEO Steve Girsky, who is known for getting General Motors out of bankruptcy as their former Vice Chairman, did a top-down vetting of Nikola, Trevor Milton, the leadership team, their strategy and vision, etc. Steve is now a member of Nikola’s board of directors along with leaders from Bosch, Hanwha, Iveco, Ace Disposal, and Caterpillar's Thompson Machinery (Source). EDIT: Along with partnering with Nikola on producing the Badger, General Motors also invested ~$2B in Nikola on top of saving Nikola $4B in capex. GM undoubtedly did their homework on Nikola and on Trevor prior to this investment, which grants them ~11% stake in the company.
Furthermore, Nikola went public via a SPAC reverse merger to save time and capital going through the traditional IPO route. They wanted to go public to be completely transparent and demonstrate to investors that they aren't another WeWork company doomed for failure. The reserve merger brings about $1B in capital to kickstart their major projects (hydrogen infrastructure and factory construction). Although their stock went through a tough road during their first couple of months since listing on the NASDAQ, Nikola continues to survive and trade above their IPO price. Three months after listing, Nikola even secured a binding contract for 2,500 Nikola Refuse trucks from Republic Services worth at least a $1B and may be increased to 5K trucks ($2B max order) (Source).
For those who think Nikola is riding on the backs of retail investors, see pg. 34 of this prospectus. Retail investors own about 10% of NKLA.
Now the real questions:
Should retail investors invest in a pre-revenue company? I invested in NKLA/VTIQ for the same reason why venture capitalists (VCs) invest in pre-revenue/pre-IPO companies. The big difference is that Nikola decided to go public via a reverse mergeSPAC, which allowed retail investors to participate, thus democratizing investment in a pre-revenue company, which until recently only the very rich VCs can.
Does Nikola deserve their pre-revenue valuation? Valuation is based on investor sentiment and Nikola cannot control their stock price. Literally the last share buyer does. I came in when NKLA was still VTIQ and my valuation was based on the 14.6K FCEV pre-orders worth ~$10B to include binding contracts with Ab inBev and U.S. Xpress. We then witnessed what happened when the Nikola Refuse order with Republic Services became a binding contract. Investors decided that they were willing to come in now before the order gets fulfilled as they believe the stock price will be much higher later when the order materializes.
Lastly, senior leadership at Nikola will take no more than $1 per year in salary and will be compensated instead with stock bonuses if they meet benchmarks. This shows good stewardship of investors’ money, not add to the company's CapEx, and letting their performance dictate their compensation.
13) They’re outsourcing everything! Definitely not vertically integrated like Tesla!
FACT CHECK: Outsourcing is a misleading term. Technically, you can't outsource to a company that invests in you and/or has partnered with you. The more appropriate term is joint venture. For example, Nikola and Iveco has a 50/50 JV factory in Germany (Nikola Iveco Europe GmbH). Iveco's parent company CNH Industrial also invested $250M to Nikola in cash, goods and services. Bosch is providing the fuel cell and powertrain for the semis. They too invested heavily in Nikola. Outsourcing would imply that Nikola is the customer of a contract company and Nikola is paying them...not at all the case. Together, these companies that have invested heavily in Nikola enable vertical integration.
Fun Fact: Just as how Nikola is using another OEM to manufacture the Badger, Tesla also used another OEM to build one of their vehicles. It was their very first vehicle...the Roadster. The OEM was Lotus, but notice I said “used another OEM to build” the Roadster. I didn’t say “manufacture”. The point here is that Testa didn’t do everything themselves as Nikola haters dog the company for.
14) The cost to create hydrogen is $13/kg. That's way more than what diesel costs. No company will switch!
FACT CHECK: Nikola has dropped the cost of producing hydrogen to below $4/kg . Their hydrogen will also be made onsite, thus removing distribution requirements. Furthermore, Nikola will take advantage of both renewable energy (wind and solar) as well as cheap excess power from the grid...hours where energy companies are actually releasing energy (wasted electricity) due to grid overload during low-usage hours. They also won't be getting power within municipalities, but rather through PPA (Power Purchase Agreements) on main federal transmission lines saving them a ton of money (Source).
15) Trevor Milton sold millions of NKLA shares to buy his $32.5M ranch when Nikola has made ZERO revenue!!
FACT CHECK: First, see #4 above. Beyond these shares Trevor had to sell as part of the merger, he cannot sell the rest of his shares as they’re locked up for 6 months post-merger with VectoIQ. Furthermore, Trevor bought the ranch a year before the merger and before VectoIQ and Steve Girsky approached Nikola. Lastly, Trevor made bank from selling dHybrid to Worthington Industries. The seed money from Worthington to start Nikola was separate from Worthington's purchase of dHybrid.
16) PIPE investors are going to sell their shares! The disparity between NKLA and NKLAW will tank the stock! SELL NOW!!
FACT CHECK: Please see this piece that I wrote, which addressed this fear mongering by naysayers.
Post-Warrants Edit: NKLA continues to trade above its IPO price. The downward pressures from the warrants are now gone and none of the PIPE investors have signaled dumping their stocks.
17) The Badger is just a GM EV rebadging of the Silverado. 100% GM technology with a Nikola badge! I can't believe Nikola gave GM 11% stake of their company for this!
FACT CHECK: The Badger will utilize GM's powertrain (Ultium battery tech and Hydrotec fuel cell stack technology), but the rest of the truck is Nikola's IP/design. Furthermore, the two existing prototype Badgers were completely made by Nikola without GM's help and will be revealed during Nikola World 2020. GM will then engineer their tech with Nikola's tech/design, test, validate, and manufacture the pickup truck. See this Tweet from Trevor:
>Nikola to share hardware like ASILD Inverters, batteries and other validated parts. Nikola will always own; the brand, cab, chassis modifications, infotainment, controls, OTA, sales, service and warranty & customer interaction. GM to help us build it to last and cut cost.
This interview explains a lot more about the partnership between Nikola and GM. I also encourage you to read the 8-K filing. It’s not that long of a read and shows what’s part of this deal beyond just the Badger, which justifies the 11% stake.
The partnership with GM on the Badger is also only good for 6 years. After that, Nikola would be free to manufacture the Badger themselves once they have a factory and the capital to do so by then. Their next-gen battery would surely be ready by then as well.
18) Nikola's Director of Hydrogen Production/Infrastructure is Trevor Milton's brother who was just your average joe construction worker, You've got to be kidding me!
FACT CHECK: Trevor's brother Travis Milton is Nikola’s Director of Hydrogen Production/Infrastructure; however he doesn’t have to know much about hydrogen technology to do what he does as Nikola hydrogen supplier is Nel Hydrogen. I assume his role is to find industry experts, such as Nel, and oversee Nikola’s contracts with them. Furthermore, there’s actually other hydrogen-related executives in the company (see pg. 16 of this prospectus presentation filed with the SEC). You have Dale Prows as Head of Hydrogen Supply Chain and Livio Gambone as Head of Hydrogen Storage. Also, check out these recent hires. They added Pablo Koziner, who came from and was an executive at Caterpillar, to be the Nikola Energy President overseeing stations and energy.
19) Nikola faked the Nikola One video...LMAO! They even admitted to it!
FACT CHECK: Yes, the Nikola One in this 2018 video did not drive in its own propulsion, hence the title "Nikola One Electric Semi Truck in Motion". The allegation is that Nikola fooled its investors. The truth of the matter is that Nikola's investors at the time were private investors as Nikola was still a pre-IPO company (Nikola Motor Company), to include Bosch and Nel. In Nikola's own words, "Nikola investors who invested during this period, in which the Company was privately held, knew the technical capability of the Nikola One at the time of their investment." Furthermore, Nikola's strategic partners have come out in support of the company after shorter Hindenburg Research's desperate hit-job article to support their short position after the GM partnership announcement that sent NKLA up ~50%. Moreover, NKLA investors find this hit-piece irrelevant as what matters now is what Nikola already has (working prototypes as seen on #6 above, strategic partners as listed on #12 above, 800 binding orders for FCEV Nikola semis from Ab inBEv and 2,500-5,000 binding orders for the Nikola Refuse by Republic Services) and what's to come (strategic partnership announcement on building out fueling stations, Badger reservation numbers, Nikola World 2020, and potentially more major binding contracts).
—
Now that we’ve gotten the baseless arguments out of the way (and I’ll continue to add to them when necessary), I encourage you to go through NikolaCorporation and read through the DD that have already been and continue to be shared. Filter topics by post flairs to find info you’re interested in.
Cheers,
KaiserCyber
submitted by KaiserCyber to NikolaCorporation [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 22nd, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 22nd, 2020.

The stock market is running out of steam with reopening trades fading and economic data ‘uneven’ - (Source)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reassure markets next week the central bank will do whatever it takes to help the economy heal. That should be enough to keep investors moving into stocks that benefit from an economic rebound and push the S&P 500 into the green for 2020.
The stock market, so eager to put the entire blow from the pandemic behind it, is now coming to terms that a “V-shaped” recovery might be too rosy a scenario.
With recent spikes in coronavirus cases and fluctuations in the economic data, the market seems to be stuck in a range amid elevated volatility. Market analysts said investors should expect more turbulence ahead because the economic recovery is most likely to be bumpy.
“The market was priced for a continuation of improvement and I think that’s overstating what’s going to happen,” said Brian Levitt, Invesco’s global market strategist. “We are going to have episodes of cases rising. We are going to have a very slow and uneven improvement in the jobs market.”
After soaring more than 40% from the March lows, the S&P 500 turned sideways in the past two weeks, trading at similar levels to early June. The market, which used to turn a blind eye to disastrous news on the thinking that the economy had already bottomed, has become more vulnerable to negative economic headlines as the data begins to give a read on the shape of the recovery.
Stocks came under pressure earlier this week after data showed weekly jobless claims rose more than expected last week, and the number stayed above 1 million for the 13th consecutive week.
And on the virus front, California, Texas, Florida and Arizona have reported an uptick in new infections and hospitalizations amid the reopening. Apple said Friday that it’s again closing some stores in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona due to the spikes in coronavirus cases, which sparked a sell-off in the market, especially among retail stocks.
“The economy is going to need more help to bounce back in months to come,” said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “For now, volatility and choppy markets remain our base case as an uneven economic recovery likely unfolds.”

‘Rolling Ws’

The rally in those popular reopening trades — airlines, cruise lines and hotels — is seemingly losing steam. Shares of American Airlines and Delta posted their second straight weekly losses. So did Carnival, Norwegian Cruise and MGM Resorts. Those stocks were once the high-beta leaders of the market comeback as investors bet that a successful reopening would take hold.
“Although the stock market was suggesting a V-shaped recovery, the more likely scenario is rolling Ws,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said in a note.
A similar market pattern happened during the financial crisis, pointed out by Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. After stocks rallied nearly 40% from the 2009 bottom, the market was range-bound for about seven weeks so the fundamentals could catch up, Colas noted.
From a technical perspective, Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, is watching if the S&P 500 can break above its recent high of 3,232 or drop below the 3,000 threshold or its 200-day moving average of 3,018 as of Friday.
“Whichever way it breaks...should be an very important development in trying to determine how this critical juncture in the stock market will be resolved,” Maley said in a note.

Fed can’t prevent volatility

While the flattening virus curve played a big role in the market rebound, it’s no denying that the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented stimulus has been a key driver in lifting stocks from the coronavirus slump. The central bank unleashed another weapon in its arsenal this week, saying it will start buying individual corporate bonds.
As comforting as it is to have the Fed’s support, the central bank can only do so much to ease investor fears.
“The Fed can’t prevent the volatility we’re seeing in stocks,” Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, said in a note. “It will likely take years for the economy to fully recover and there remain other uncertainties on the path ahead. As such, investors may continue to struggle with this mismatch between markets and the economy before seeing the case for new highs.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reminded investors again this week in his semiannual testimony before Congress that “significant uncertainty remains about the timing and strength of the recovery.”
Many on Wall Street have also warned that extended policy measures including injection of trillions of cheap money would lead to problems down the road such as hyperinflation.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

100 Days

100 days ago today on March 11th, the WHO made it official and declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Markets were already under a lot of pressure before the WHO declared the pandemic, but the 100 days since will probably go down as some of the craziest 100 days we'll ever experience, not only in the market but in general society as well. More than enough ink and pixels have been spent discussing the societal impact at large, so we'll spare you and just focus on the markets.
While much of the declines were already in the rearview mirror by the time the WHO made its announcement, equities still had a steep decline in the immediate aftermath. The large-cap Russell 1000, for example, fell another 19% to its March 23rd closing low, but after the rebound, the net change since the pandemic was officially declared > has been a gain of 14.3%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As impressive as the Russell 1000's gain has been in the face of the global pandemic, many stocks have done a lot better than that. The table below lists the 25 stocks in the index that have seen the biggest gains so far during this pandemic. Topping the list is Wayfair (W) which has rallied more than 350%. If there is one thing Americans must have realized while they were stuck at home under lockdown it was that they needed some new furniture! Behind Wayfair, two other stocks have more than tripled and both were beaten down stocks from the Energy sector that were trading at less than $2 per share on March 11th. A number of familiar names standout including Moderna (MRNA), Twilio (TWLO), DocuSign (DOCU), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Etsy (ETSY), but looking through the list, there's really a diverse group of names ranging from bombed-out stocks from the Energy sector (8 stocks), Consumer names (7 stocks), and the ever-popular software stocks from the Technology sector (6 stocks). It's definitely been a rocky road for the markets over the last 100 days, but for anyone who had these names in their portfolio, they aren't complaining. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for access to our weekly Bespoke Report which includes an update to our Stocks for the COVID economy portfolio that was released on March 11th.
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S&P 500 Industry Group Breadth Remains Positive

Equity markets have become a bit wobbly in the last week or so, but breadth, in terms of large-cap industry groups, still remains pretty robust. Relative to their 50-DMAs, all 24 S&P 500 industry groups still have rising 50-DMAs. When you consider the fact that the 50-day window spans the period going back to early April, a period encompassing most of what was one of the strongest 50-day rallies on record, the fact that every industry group has a rising 50-DMA isn't all that surprising.
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Even though all their 50-DMAs are rising, not every industry group is currently trading above its 50-DMA. While the reading briefly reached 100% in late May and early June, two industry groups have since pulled back below their 50-DMAs, putting the percentage at a still impressive 91.7%.
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The table below summarizes industry group performance showing YTD performance, where each one is trading relative to its 50-DMA, as well as where the group is trading relative to its 52-week high.
As mentioned above, all but two groups (Drugs & Biotech and Food & Staples Retail) remain above their 50-DMAs, and another four are less than 2% above their 50-DMA. If Friday's sell-off deepens into next week, the percentage of industry groups above their 50-DMAs has the potential to quickly sink as low as 75%. Of the 22 industry groups that are above their 50-DMAs, Autos and Tech Hardware are the only two greater than 10% above.
On a YTD basis, the S&P 500 is down less than 4%, but for the vast majority of industry groups, performance has been worse than that. Of the 24 groups shown, 16 are down more than 4% YTD, including eleven that are down over 10%. The worst performers of these losers include Energy, Banks, and Autos. While Energy gets most of the attention for being so weak, Banks are essentially down just as much! On the upside, just two industry groups are up over 10% (Retailers, which is basically Amazon, and Software & Services). Retailing is also the one industry group that is within 1% of a 52-week high and one of seven that is within 4% of a 52-week high.
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Credit Market Reversals

We've noted in detail the massive reversals seen in global equities over the last three months, but outside of equities, we've also seen some other massive moves. One example is credit spreads between the yields of corporate and high yield bonds relative to Treasuries.
The top chart below shows the spread in yields between the B of A Corporate Index relative to Treasuries going back to 1997, and below that, we show the 50-day rate of change in the spread. Heading into the COVID-crash, spreads on corporate bonds were less than 100 basis points (bps), meaning the corporate bond index was yielding only 1 percentage point more than comparable Treasury yields. In the span of less than two months, though, spreads surged by more than 300 bps to over 400 bps. Not since the depths of the credit crisis in 2009 had we seen spreads widen out more than they did in March. Just as notable as the level is the fact that the speed with which spreads widened during the COVID-crash was similar to the pace during the credit crisis.
While spreads were quick to spike during both crises, they narrowed nearly as fast both times. Going back to 1997, the most corporate spreads have ever narrowed over a 50-day period was in June 2009. Coming in at a close second place, though, the 50-day period ending in early June was nearly as extreme.
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Similar to spreads on corporate bonds, the movement in spreads on high yield (junk) credit has been nearly as extreme. While spreads on the B of A High Yield Master Index widened out by only half as much during the COVID-crash as they did during the Financial Crisis, the 50-day move ending in late March was easily more extreme than any other period outside of the credit crisis.
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A shown in both charts above, the only time both corporate and high yield spreads narrowed by an amount anywhere close to the amount they narrowed from late March through early June was back in early June of 2009. The chart below of the S&P 500 shows that point from the perspective of the S&P 500. That period in June 2009 was right in the early stages of what turned out to be a multi-year bull market. Given the similar tightening in the credit market now versus back then, should we assume a similar move for equities going forward?
After the last five months, we'll be the first to say that anything is possible. However, while there are plenty of similarities between the moves in credit markets over the last three months versus the first half of 2009, there are also important distinctions. The most important of these has to do with where the S&P 500 is trading right now. The second chart below shows the historical levels the S&P 500 has traded at relative to its all-time high. Even after the initial narrowing of credit spreads from March through early June 2009, the S&P 500 was still more than 40% off its all-time highs, and therefore still had a lot of climbing to do to get out of the hole. Back in June 2009, to get back to its all-time high from October 2007, the S&P 500 still had to rally another 75%. Today, it's a much different picture as the S&P 500 is already within 10% of its February 2020 all-time high. Could we be in the earlier stages of what turns out to be another long-term bull market? Sure. Will the magnitude of the gains be anything like the gains early on in the bull market that began in 2009? It's unlikely.
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The Very Slow Recovery In Economic Activity Is Continuing

As economies around the country slowly recover from COVID-19 and reopenings proceed, economic activity is slowly recovering. For the hardest-hit sectors, though, the recovery is only inching forward. Security checkpoint volumes at US airports are still down 80% YoY, and the trend of improvement is only set to return travel activity to 50% of 2019 levels in September.
For restaurants, OpenTable data shows covers down by two-thirds from last year, though some of that is because many restaurants remain closed. Among reopened establishments, the number of seated customers are still down almost 40% YoY. About half of restaurants remain closed per the OpenTable data. We discussed this chart and other retail enthusiasm indicators in last night's Closer report, which is available to Bespoke Institutional members.
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Leading Indicators Turn Positive

Yesterday, The Conference Board released last month’s reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, which showed a month-over-month increase of 2.8%. As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, the return to positive territory follows three straight months of negative monthly growth.
”We noted that the pace of the LEI’s deterioration slowed in the April report, potentially suggesting a bottom forming in the US economy,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Yesterday’s print was one of several positive economic data surprises we’ve observed recently, bolstering our optimistic view for economic growth in the second half of the year.”
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While the economy still has a ways to go in order to recover from the damage of the prior three months, the composition of May’s LEI advance encourages us. We noted a disconnect in April’s readout in which the financial market indicators tended to be net positive contributors while the “real economy” indicators detracted. May’s release saw a reversal of that trend whereby the economic subindexes played catch-up. Seven of the 10 components were positive contributors led by an improvement in average weekly initial unemployment claims, average weekly manufacturing hours, and building permits. The three negative contributors were the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) New Orders Index, average consumer expectations for business conditions, and the Leading Credit Index.
The most recent LEI release reinforces our view that an economic bottom is likely behind us. Workers starting to return to jobs that they were unable to do remotely had material effects on May’s readout, and if that trend continues, a stock market trading at stretched valuations would have a stronger foundation under it.

3 Charts That Have Our Attention

Stocks have shaken off the 5.9% S&P 500 Index drop last Thursday by gaining three days in a row before yesterday’s modest weakness. While researching and reading this week, three charts stood out that tell us quite a good deal about how investors have reacted during this volatile market and what could be next.
“Incredibly, we saw nearly a third of all investors over 65 years old sell their full equity holdings,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “With stocks now back near highs, this is yet another reason to have a plan in place before trouble comes, as making decisions when under duress can lead to the exact wrong decision.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, according to data from Fidelity Investments, nearly 18% of all investors sold their full equity holdings between February and May, while a much higher percentage that were closer to retirement (or in retirement) sold. Some might have bought back in, but odds are that many are feeling quite upset with the record bounce back in stocks here.
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Along these same lines, investors have recently moved to cash at a record pace. In fact, there is now nearly $5 trillion in money market funds, almost twice the levels we saw this time only five years ago. Also, the past three months saw the largest three-month change ever, as investors ran to the safety of cash. If you were looking for a reason stocks could continue to go higher over the longer term, there really is a lot of cash on the sidelines right now.
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Last, we noted last week that the extreme overbought nature of stocks here is actually consistent with the start of a new bull run, not a bear market bounce, or the end of a bull market. Adding to this, the spread between the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average was near the highest level ever. Think about it; with the 45% bounce in the S&P 500, many stocks were above their 50-day moving average, but not nearly as many were above their 200-day moving average. So from a longer-term perspective, there could still be gains to be had.
Sure enough, looking at other times that had wide spreads, they took place near the start of major bull markets. Near-term the potential is there for a well-deserved pullback, but going out 6 to 12 months, stocks have consistently outperformed.
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Election Year July Performance Tepid

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 74, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020).
July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months and is the third weakest performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.5% average gain. Dynamic trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year brings an inflow of new capital. This creates a bullish beginning, a soft week after options expiration and some strength towards the end.
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Election year Julys rank in the bottom half of all election year months. DJIA: 0.5%, 6th worst; S&P 0.4% 6th worst; NASDAQ (since 1972): -0.7% 3rd worst; Russell 2000 (since 1980): -0.2% 3rd worst.
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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $NKE
  • $RAD
  • $DRI
  • $WGO
  • $MKC
  • $WTI
  • $INFO
  • $ACN
  • $KBH
  • $SOHO
  • $FDS
  • $BB
  • $AVAV
  • $LZB
  • $XAIR
  • $CAAS
  • $MCF
  • $BWAY
  • $SNX
  • $GMS
  • $WOR
  • $QMCO
  • $AFMD
  • $EPAC
  • $WUBA
  • $USAT
  • $NG
  • $PDCO
  • $APOG
  • $PRGS
  • $FUL
  • $AEMD
  • $AIH
  • $YRD
  • $STAF
  • $UFAB
  • $CAMP
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.22.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Monday 6.22.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.25.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.25.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.26.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.26.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Nike Inc $95.78

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $8.35 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 95.16% with revenue decreasing by 18.01%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.9% above its 200 day moving average of $92.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,691 contracts of the $102.00 call expiring on Friday, July 10, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

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Darden Restaurants, Inc. $70.27

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.78 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.68) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 201.14% with revenue decreasing by 43.92%. Short interest has increased by 33.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 108.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.4% below its 200 day moving average of $96.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,882 contracts of the $70.00 call and 814 contracts of the $80.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

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Rite Aid Corp. $12.41

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $5.60 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 171.43% with revenue increasing by 4.23%. Short interest has increased by 11.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% below its 200 day moving average of $12.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,617 contracts of the $14.00 call expiring on Friday, June 26, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.4% move in recent quarters.

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Winnebago Industries, Inc. $68.36

Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.41 per share on revenue of $325.94 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.96% with revenue decreasing by 38.38%. Short interest has increased by 12.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 156.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.4% above its 200 day moving average of $46.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 583 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.3% move in recent quarters.

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McCormick & Company, Incorporated $172.20

McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $1.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.72% with revenue decreasing by 0.91%. Short interest has decreased by 27.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $160.35. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

W&T Offshore Inc. $2.57

W&T Offshore Inc. (WTI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:45 PM ET on Monday, June 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $129.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 11.93%. Short interest has increased by 95.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.8% below its 200 day moving average of $3.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

IHS Markit Ltd. $72.03

IHS Markit Ltd. (INFO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.67 per share on revenue of $1.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.63% with revenue decreasing by 7.53%. Short interest has decreased by 27.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 44.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.4% above its 200 day moving average of $69.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Accenture Ltd. $201.55

Accenture Ltd. (ACN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.84 per share on revenue of $10.94 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.89 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.66% with revenue decreasing by 1.44%. Short interest has increased by 20.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.6% above its 200 day moving average of $190.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,740 contracts of the $190.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sotherly Hotels Inc. $2.96

Sotherly Hotels Inc. (SOHO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.16 per share on revenue of $16.30 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 26% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.39% with revenue decreasing by 65.60%. Short interest has increased by 2,813.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 43.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.4% below its 200 day moving average of $4.88. The stock has averaged a 3.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

KB Home $32.29

KB Home (KBH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $1.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.76% with revenue increasing by 14.50%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 65.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.6% above its 200 day moving average of $31.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Cant have EVs without the EV Infrastructure

Cant have EVs without the EV Infrastructure
There is no doubt (almost) all of you have been witnessing the current EV hypetrain/market trend. One thing I often see overlooked is the lack of infrastructure in place. Without this our beloved SHLL, SPAQ, NKLA and many others will struggle to reach full potential market capitalization.
Lucky for us governments around the world have taken notice, climate change/decarbonization is accelerating the movement and it seems like every othernweek we have new EV play IPOing.
BIG money is being invested into sustainable infrastructure. The latest World Economic Forum Report on the Future of Nature and the Economy is calling for over $3 trillion USD in funding and the creation of over 100 million jobs in this sector alone!
“(By) 2030, global demand for new (traditional and sustainable) infrastructure could amount to more than $90 trillion (while) the global electric vehicle charging station market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 41.79% to 44.5% and reach $55.348 billion USD (by 2026).”
“(NY State) is set to create more than 50,000 charging stations and will largely be funded by the state’s investor-owned utility companies, with the total budget capped at $701 million through 2025 … (while Florida State recently announced plans to) increase the number of publicly accessible fast chargers by more than 50%.”
“The Moving Forward Act, in the transportation committee, will focus on building new infrastructure that will meet with the demands of mitigating climate change, according to the bill. This will dedicate $1.5 trillion over the next five years to reimagining transportation across the nation on the metropolitan level by providing resources to the agencies that run them.”
Highlights from the bill:
- Authorizes $25 billion in funding for the Postal Service for the modernization of postal infrastructure and operations, including through capital expenditures to purchase delivery vehicles, processing equipment, and other goods. The section reserves $6 billion for the purchase of new vehicles.
- LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES.—Beginning in fiscal year 2025, 100 percent of the total number of light-duty vehicles acquired by a Federal entity for a Federal fleet shall be alternative fueled vehicles, of which—‘‘(i) at least 50 percent shall be zero emission vehicles or plug-in hybrids in fiscal years 2025 through 2034; ‘‘(ii) at least 75 percent shall be zero emission vehicles or plug-in hybrids in fiscal years 2035 through 2049; and ‘(iii) 100 percent shall be zero emission vehicles in fiscal year 2050 and there after. ‘‘(B)
- A rebate program for replacement of pre-existing electric vehicle supply equipment at a single location shall be the lesser of— (i) 75 percent of the applicable covered expenses; (ii) $1,000 for covered expenses associated with the purchase and installation of non-networked level 2 charging equipment; (iii) $2,000 for covered expenses associated with the purchase and installation of networked level 2 charging equipment; or (iv) $25,000 for covered expenses associated with the purchase and installation of networked direct current fast charging equipment.
- Hydrogen fuel cell refueling equipment shall be eligible for a rebate under the rebate program. All requirements related to public accessibility of installed locations shall apply. Of the amounts appropriated to carry out the rebate program, not more than 25 percent may be used for rebates for hydrogen fuel cell refuelling equipment.
- The Secretary may provide financial assistance to a State to develop a State energy transportation plan, for inclusion in a State energy conservation plan under section 362(d), to promote the electrification of the transportation system, reduced consumption of fossil fuels, and improved air quality.
- Deploy a network of electric vehicle supply equipment to ensure access to electricity for electric vehicles; and ‘‘(2) promote modernization of the electric grid to accommodate demand for power to operate electric vehicle supply equipment and to utilize energy storage capacity provided by electric vehicles.
- The following percentages of the total number of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles acquired by a Federal entity for a Federal fleet shall be alternative fueled vehicles: ‘(i) At least 20 percent in fiscal years 2025 through 2029. ‘‘(ii) At least 30 percent in fiscal years 2030 through 2039. ‘‘(iii) At least 40 percent in fiscal years 2040 through 2049. ‘‘(iv) At least 50 percent in fiscal year 2050 and thereafter.
https://preview.redd.it/3dpl2lvd69e51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=22e20820868479b61dfa970d325f7edfa5302000
https://preview.redd.it/0okpvqxe69e51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea5a2962d51abd3922819dd8eb25169d4114b909
As you can now see the US government is putting some serious money into the EV infrastructure. After all – what would be the point of the EV hype train without the infrastructure?
Which states will announce expansion plans next? How much money will they throw at it? What government subsidies will help consumers transition to EV? Which publicly traded companies are set to benefit? BLNK(W), EVSI(W), PLUG (LINKS TO INVESTOR INFO) and WKHS among others. SPACs include – SHLL, SPAQ, NKLA, FVAC, and potentially KCAC, HCAC, JIH, IPOB/C, SOAC, GSAH, JWS, PSTH and many more.
Lesser talked about companies that stand to benefit: BP Chargemaster, ABB, Eaton, General Electric, Schneider Electric, ChargePoint, Inc., Tesla, ClipperCreek, SemaConnect, Inc., AeroVironment Inc., Delphi Automotive LLP, Leviton Manufacturing Co., Webasto, and Siemens.
https://preview.redd.it/jwn55cbg69e51.png?width=477&format=png&auto=webp&s=f759c35b5a2c6fd462af48cee8329ef51f1b40bb
https://preview.redd.it/y2u2rr0i69e51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=27b5c4c302b5146619c61aa2004f6c5251637350
https://preview.redd.it/pt8gozdj69e51.png?width=529&format=png&auto=webp&s=b5ac5ed6c01dcd9adc0bbdc0ec7e30711c6b0ea3
![img](a873rz1k69e51 " ")
https://preview.redd.it/gu2lvyzv69e51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=71e282335a2c340c192d9c922a74b43943961742
“Like many companies, DHL understands the economic and health risks of climate change and transportation-related air pollution. That is why we’ve committed to operating 70% of our first and last mile services with zero-emission solutions globally by 2025.”
“With ever more urgency as businesses navigate a shifting economy and business model in the wake of COVID-19, we support the MOU and forthcoming [action plan] as a means to strengthen the clean transportation market, boost economic development, and improve public health,” the businesses wrote. “A coordinated multi-state approach to implementation of market-enabling initiatives is required to rapidly unlock the long-term savings, climate and clean air benefits of [medium- and heavy-duty vehicle] electrification.”
​
Extra Links: https://www.plugpower.com/resources/
https://www.ceres.org/news-centepress-releases/businesses-applaud-largest-multi-state-effort-expedite-decarbonization
https://www.ncsha.org/wp-content/uploads/H.R.-2-Moving-Forward-Act-_Fact-Sheet.pdf
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/parsing-a-decade-of-ev-infrastructure-investments
http://www.digitaljournal.com/p4416774
https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/tw/pdf/2018/03/KPMG-Autonomous-Vehicle-Readiness-Index.pdf
https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/automotive-electric-bus-market-3202
https://brattlefiles.blob.core.windows.net/files/19421_brattle_-_opportunities_for_the_electricity_industry_in_ev_transition_-_final.pdf
https://newclimateeconomy.report/workingpapers
Disclaimer: My portfolio is pure ESG and I own most stocks mentioned in here.
TLDR: You cant have EVs without the infrastructure - BLNK(W), EVSI(W), PLUG, FVAC and WKHS among others. SPACs include – SHLL, SPAQ, NKLA, and potentially KCAC, HCAC, JIH, IPOB/C, SOAC, GSAH, JWS, PSTH and many more.
submitted by GhostfacexProdigy to SPACs [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 22nd, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 22nd, 2020.

The stock market is running out of steam with reopening trades fading and economic data ‘uneven’ - (Source)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reassure markets next week the central bank will do whatever it takes to help the economy heal. That should be enough to keep investors moving into stocks that benefit from an economic rebound and push the S&P 500 into the green for 2020.
The stock market, so eager to put the entire blow from the pandemic behind it, is now coming to terms that a “V-shaped” recovery might be too rosy a scenario.
With recent spikes in coronavirus cases and fluctuations in the economic data, the market seems to be stuck in a range amid elevated volatility. Market analysts said investors should expect more turbulence ahead because the economic recovery is most likely to be bumpy.
“The market was priced for a continuation of improvement and I think that’s overstating what’s going to happen,” said Brian Levitt, Invesco’s global market strategist. “We are going to have episodes of cases rising. We are going to have a very slow and uneven improvement in the jobs market.”
After soaring more than 40% from the March lows, the S&P 500 turned sideways in the past two weeks, trading at similar levels to early June. The market, which used to turn a blind eye to disastrous news on the thinking that the economy had already bottomed, has become more vulnerable to negative economic headlines as the data begins to give a read on the shape of the recovery.
Stocks came under pressure earlier this week after data showed weekly jobless claims rose more than expected last week, and the number stayed above 1 million for the 13th consecutive week.
And on the virus front, California, Texas, Florida and Arizona have reported an uptick in new infections and hospitalizations amid the reopening. Apple said Friday that it’s again closing some stores in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona due to the spikes in coronavirus cases, which sparked a sell-off in the market, especially among retail stocks.
“The economy is going to need more help to bounce back in months to come,” said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “For now, volatility and choppy markets remain our base case as an uneven economic recovery likely unfolds.”

‘Rolling Ws’

The rally in those popular reopening trades — airlines, cruise lines and hotels — is seemingly losing steam. Shares of American Airlines and Delta posted their second straight weekly losses. So did Carnival, Norwegian Cruise and MGM Resorts. Those stocks were once the high-beta leaders of the market comeback as investors bet that a successful reopening would take hold.
“Although the stock market was suggesting a V-shaped recovery, the more likely scenario is rolling Ws,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said in a note.
A similar market pattern happened during the financial crisis, pointed out by Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. After stocks rallied nearly 40% from the 2009 bottom, the market was range-bound for about seven weeks so the fundamentals could catch up, Colas noted.
From a technical perspective, Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, is watching if the S&P 500 can break above its recent high of 3,232 or drop below the 3,000 threshold or its 200-day moving average of 3,018 as of Friday.
“Whichever way it breaks...should be an very important development in trying to determine how this critical juncture in the stock market will be resolved,” Maley said in a note.

Fed can’t prevent volatility

While the flattening virus curve played a big role in the market rebound, it’s no denying that the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented stimulus has been a key driver in lifting stocks from the coronavirus slump. The central bank unleashed another weapon in its arsenal this week, saying it will start buying individual corporate bonds.
As comforting as it is to have the Fed’s support, the central bank can only do so much to ease investor fears.
“The Fed can’t prevent the volatility we’re seeing in stocks,” Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, said in a note. “It will likely take years for the economy to fully recover and there remain other uncertainties on the path ahead. As such, investors may continue to struggle with this mismatch between markets and the economy before seeing the case for new highs.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reminded investors again this week in his semiannual testimony before Congress that “significant uncertainty remains about the timing and strength of the recovery.”
Many on Wall Street have also warned that extended policy measures including injection of trillions of cheap money would lead to problems down the road such as hyperinflation.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

100 Days

100 days ago today on March 11th, the WHO made it official and declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Markets were already under a lot of pressure before the WHO declared the pandemic, but the 100 days since will probably go down as some of the craziest 100 days we'll ever experience, not only in the market but in general society as well. More than enough ink and pixels have been spent discussing the societal impact at large, so we'll spare you and just focus on the markets.
While much of the declines were already in the rearview mirror by the time the WHO made its announcement, equities still had a steep decline in the immediate aftermath. The large-cap Russell 1000, for example, fell another 19% to its March 23rd closing low, but after the rebound, the net change since the pandemic was officially declared > has been a gain of 14.3%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As impressive as the Russell 1000's gain has been in the face of the global pandemic, many stocks have done a lot better than that. The table below lists the 25 stocks in the index that have seen the biggest gains so far during this pandemic. Topping the list is Wayfair (W) which has rallied more than 350%. If there is one thing Americans must have realized while they were stuck at home under lockdown it was that they needed some new furniture! Behind Wayfair, two other stocks have more than tripled and both were beaten down stocks from the Energy sector that were trading at less than $2 per share on March 11th. A number of familiar names standout including Moderna (MRNA), Twilio (TWLO), DocuSign (DOCU), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Etsy (ETSY), but looking through the list, there's really a diverse group of names ranging from bombed-out stocks from the Energy sector (8 stocks), Consumer names (7 stocks), and the ever-popular software stocks from the Technology sector (6 stocks). It's definitely been a rocky road for the markets over the last 100 days, but for anyone who had these names in their portfolio, they aren't complaining. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for access to our weekly Bespoke Report which includes an update to our Stocks for the COVID economy portfolio that was released on March 11th.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P 500 Industry Group Breadth Remains Positive

Equity markets have become a bit wobbly in the last week or so, but breadth, in terms of large-cap industry groups, still remains pretty robust. Relative to their 50-DMAs, all 24 S&P 500 industry groups still have rising 50-DMAs. When you consider the fact that the 50-day window spans the period going back to early April, a period encompassing most of what was one of the strongest 50-day rallies on record, the fact that every industry group has a rising 50-DMA isn't all that surprising.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even though all their 50-DMAs are rising, not every industry group is currently trading above its 50-DMA. While the reading briefly reached 100% in late May and early June, two industry groups have since pulled back below their 50-DMAs, putting the percentage at a still impressive 91.7%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The table below summarizes industry group performance showing YTD performance, where each one is trading relative to its 50-DMA, as well as where the group is trading relative to its 52-week high.
As mentioned above, all but two groups (Drugs & Biotech and Food & Staples Retail) remain above their 50-DMAs, and another four are less than 2% above their 50-DMA. If Friday's sell-off deepens into next week, the percentage of industry groups above their 50-DMAs has the potential to quickly sink as low as 75%. Of the 22 industry groups that are above their 50-DMAs, Autos and Tech Hardware are the only two greater than 10% above.
On a YTD basis, the S&P 500 is down less than 4%, but for the vast majority of industry groups, performance has been worse than that. Of the 24 groups shown, 16 are down more than 4% YTD, including eleven that are down over 10%. The worst performers of these losers include Energy, Banks, and Autos. While Energy gets most of the attention for being so weak, Banks are essentially down just as much! On the upside, just two industry groups are up over 10% (Retailers, which is basically Amazon, and Software & Services). Retailing is also the one industry group that is within 1% of a 52-week high and one of seven that is within 4% of a 52-week high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Credit Market Reversals

We've noted in detail the massive reversals seen in global equities over the last three months, but outside of equities, we've also seen some other massive moves. One example is credit spreads between the yields of corporate and high yield bonds relative to Treasuries.
The top chart below shows the spread in yields between the B of A Corporate Index relative to Treasuries going back to 1997, and below that, we show the 50-day rate of change in the spread. Heading into the COVID-crash, spreads on corporate bonds were less than 100 basis points (bps), meaning the corporate bond index was yielding only 1 percentage point more than comparable Treasury yields. In the span of less than two months, though, spreads surged by more than 300 bps to over 400 bps. Not since the depths of the credit crisis in 2009 had we seen spreads widen out more than they did in March. Just as notable as the level is the fact that the speed with which spreads widened during the COVID-crash was similar to the pace during the credit crisis.
While spreads were quick to spike during both crises, they narrowed nearly as fast both times. Going back to 1997, the most corporate spreads have ever narrowed over a 50-day period was in June 2009. Coming in at a close second place, though, the 50-day period ending in early June was nearly as extreme.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Similar to spreads on corporate bonds, the movement in spreads on high yield (junk) credit has been nearly as extreme. While spreads on the B of A High Yield Master Index widened out by only half as much during the COVID-crash as they did during the Financial Crisis, the 50-day move ending in late March was easily more extreme than any other period outside of the credit crisis.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A shown in both charts above, the only time both corporate and high yield spreads narrowed by an amount anywhere close to the amount they narrowed from late March through early June was back in early June of 2009. The chart below of the S&P 500 shows that point from the perspective of the S&P 500. That period in June 2009 was right in the early stages of what turned out to be a multi-year bull market. Given the similar tightening in the credit market now versus back then, should we assume a similar move for equities going forward?
After the last five months, we'll be the first to say that anything is possible. However, while there are plenty of similarities between the moves in credit markets over the last three months versus the first half of 2009, there are also important distinctions. The most important of these has to do with where the S&P 500 is trading right now. The second chart below shows the historical levels the S&P 500 has traded at relative to its all-time high. Even after the initial narrowing of credit spreads from March through early June 2009, the S&P 500 was still more than 40% off its all-time highs, and therefore still had a lot of climbing to do to get out of the hole. Back in June 2009, to get back to its all-time high from October 2007, the S&P 500 still had to rally another 75%. Today, it's a much different picture as the S&P 500 is already within 10% of its February 2020 all-time high. Could we be in the earlier stages of what turns out to be another long-term bull market? Sure. Will the magnitude of the gains be anything like the gains early on in the bull market that began in 2009? It's unlikely.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Very Slow Recovery In Economic Activity Is Continuing

As economies around the country slowly recover from COVID-19 and reopenings proceed, economic activity is slowly recovering. For the hardest-hit sectors, though, the recovery is only inching forward. Security checkpoint volumes at US airports are still down 80% YoY, and the trend of improvement is only set to return travel activity to 50% of 2019 levels in September.
For restaurants, OpenTable data shows covers down by two-thirds from last year, though some of that is because many restaurants remain closed. Among reopened establishments, the number of seated customers are still down almost 40% YoY. About half of restaurants remain closed per the OpenTable data. We discussed this chart and other retail enthusiasm indicators in last night's Closer report, which is available to Bespoke Institutional members.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Leading Indicators Turn Positive

Yesterday, The Conference Board released last month’s reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, which showed a month-over-month increase of 2.8%. As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, the return to positive territory follows three straight months of negative monthly growth.
”We noted that the pace of the LEI’s deterioration slowed in the April report, potentially suggesting a bottom forming in the US economy,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Yesterday’s print was one of several positive economic data surprises we’ve observed recently, bolstering our optimistic view for economic growth in the second half of the year.”
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the economy still has a ways to go in order to recover from the damage of the prior three months, the composition of May’s LEI advance encourages us. We noted a disconnect in April’s readout in which the financial market indicators tended to be net positive contributors while the “real economy” indicators detracted. May’s release saw a reversal of that trend whereby the economic subindexes played catch-up. Seven of the 10 components were positive contributors led by an improvement in average weekly initial unemployment claims, average weekly manufacturing hours, and building permits. The three negative contributors were the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) New Orders Index, average consumer expectations for business conditions, and the Leading Credit Index.
The most recent LEI release reinforces our view that an economic bottom is likely behind us. Workers starting to return to jobs that they were unable to do remotely had material effects on May’s readout, and if that trend continues, a stock market trading at stretched valuations would have a stronger foundation under it.

3 Charts That Have Our Attention

Stocks have shaken off the 5.9% S&P 500 Index drop last Thursday by gaining three days in a row before yesterday’s modest weakness. While researching and reading this week, three charts stood out that tell us quite a good deal about how investors have reacted during this volatile market and what could be next.
“Incredibly, we saw nearly a third of all investors over 65 years old sell their full equity holdings,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “With stocks now back near highs, this is yet another reason to have a plan in place before trouble comes, as making decisions when under duress can lead to the exact wrong decision.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, according to data from Fidelity Investments, nearly 18% of all investors sold their full equity holdings between February and May, while a much higher percentage that were closer to retirement (or in retirement) sold. Some might have bought back in, but odds are that many are feeling quite upset with the record bounce back in stocks here.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Along these same lines, investors have recently moved to cash at a record pace. In fact, there is now nearly $5 trillion in money market funds, almost twice the levels we saw this time only five years ago. Also, the past three months saw the largest three-month change ever, as investors ran to the safety of cash. If you were looking for a reason stocks could continue to go higher over the longer term, there really is a lot of cash on the sidelines right now.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last, we noted last week that the extreme overbought nature of stocks here is actually consistent with the start of a new bull run, not a bear market bounce, or the end of a bull market. Adding to this, the spread between the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average was near the highest level ever. Think about it; with the 45% bounce in the S&P 500, many stocks were above their 50-day moving average, but not nearly as many were above their 200-day moving average. So from a longer-term perspective, there could still be gains to be had.
Sure enough, looking at other times that had wide spreads, they took place near the start of major bull markets. Near-term the potential is there for a well-deserved pullback, but going out 6 to 12 months, stocks have consistently outperformed.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Year July Performance Tepid

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 74, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020).
July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months and is the third weakest performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.5% average gain. Dynamic trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year brings an inflow of new capital. This creates a bullish beginning, a soft week after options expiration and some strength towards the end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Election year Julys rank in the bottom half of all election year months. DJIA: 0.5%, 6th worst; S&P 0.4% 6th worst; NASDAQ (since 1972): -0.7% 3rd worst; Russell 2000 (since 1980): -0.2% 3rd worst.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 19th, 2020

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6.21.20

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $NKE
  • $RAD
  • $DRI
  • $WGO
  • $MKC
  • $WTI
  • $INFO
  • $ACN
  • $KBH
  • $SOHO
  • $FDS
  • $BB
  • $AVAV
  • $LZB
  • $XAIR
  • $CAAS
  • $MCF
  • $BWAY
  • $SNX
  • $GMS
  • $WOR
  • $QMCO
  • $AFMD
  • $EPAC
  • $WUBA
  • $USAT
  • $NG
  • $PDCO
  • $APOG
  • $PRGS
  • $FUL
  • $AEMD
  • $AIH
  • $YRD
  • $STAF
  • $UFAB
  • $CAMP
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.22.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Monday 6.22.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.25.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.25.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.26.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.26.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Nike Inc $95.78

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $8.35 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 95.16% with revenue decreasing by 18.01%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.9% above its 200 day moving average of $92.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,691 contracts of the $102.00 call expiring on Friday, July 10, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Darden Restaurants, Inc. $70.27

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.78 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.68) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 201.14% with revenue decreasing by 43.92%. Short interest has increased by 33.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 108.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.4% below its 200 day moving average of $96.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,882 contracts of the $70.00 call and 814 contracts of the $80.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Rite Aid Corp. $12.41

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $5.60 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 171.43% with revenue increasing by 4.23%. Short interest has increased by 11.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% below its 200 day moving average of $12.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,617 contracts of the $14.00 call expiring on Friday, June 26, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Winnebago Industries, Inc. $68.36

Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.41 per share on revenue of $325.94 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.96% with revenue decreasing by 38.38%. Short interest has increased by 12.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 156.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.4% above its 200 day moving average of $46.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 583 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

McCormick & Company, Incorporated $172.20

McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $1.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.72% with revenue decreasing by 0.91%. Short interest has decreased by 27.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $160.35. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

W&T Offshore Inc. $2.57

W&T Offshore Inc. (WTI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:45 PM ET on Monday, June 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $129.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 11.93%. Short interest has increased by 95.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.8% below its 200 day moving average of $3.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

IHS Markit Ltd. $72.03

IHS Markit Ltd. (INFO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.67 per share on revenue of $1.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.63% with revenue decreasing by 7.53%. Short interest has decreased by 27.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 44.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.4% above its 200 day moving average of $69.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Accenture Ltd. $201.55

Accenture Ltd. (ACN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.84 per share on revenue of $10.94 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.89 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.66% with revenue decreasing by 1.44%. Short interest has increased by 20.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.6% above its 200 day moving average of $190.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,740 contracts of the $190.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sotherly Hotels Inc. $2.96

Sotherly Hotels Inc. (SOHO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.16 per share on revenue of $16.30 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 26% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.39% with revenue decreasing by 65.60%. Short interest has increased by 2,813.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 43.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.4% below its 200 day moving average of $4.88. The stock has averaged a 3.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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KB Home $32.29

KB Home (KBH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $1.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.76% with revenue increasing by 14.50%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 65.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.6% above its 200 day moving average of $31.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.

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